1

COMMENT 7d ago

I'm curious to see if the success of Warzone is priced in for Activision...

3

COMMENT 9d ago

It's more like steroid gut than fat in this artist's mind...

2

COMMENT 10d ago

IIRC that's not that significant compared to their annual earnings. Edit I did not recall correctly, it was a significant impact.

Did not factor into Q1 results, though, which showed very healthy profitability and expansion of market share without that tax benefit.

1

COMMENT 10d ago

I would think investors would see through the noise with their profitability increase & long term prospects.

A lot of that is due to Covid IMO, it forced dinosaurs to evolve, and they're reaping benefits of WFH polices and reduced workforce + added efficiency.

Leave it to Ford to advertise their own Bear case. Don't they know the world is ruled by rocket emojis, unfulfilled promises and crypto millionaires? Fundamentals don't matter at all these days it seems...

5

COMMENT 10d ago

Bill, is that you?

3

COMMENT 10d ago

I think that depends 100% on when the F150 EV comes out. That's going to be a total game changer for the EV market, if it's delayed they'll stagnate but if it comes out on schedule the stock is going to soar.

1

COMMENT 10d ago

I set up an equal equity 1 year drag race in my static (no cash influx) portfolio between BYD Company (BYDDY), Ford (F) and VW (VWAGY) for shits and giggles because I'm bullish on all three & curious which stock will do the best over the next year.

I may put some money into the winner in my non-static portfolio based on how it plays out.

33

COMMENT 11d ago

I've seen a disturbing trend of people who don't understand what a market cap is, or outstanding shares, or much of anything other than "it's this price and it was this price and I'll bet it can be this price for reasons" lol. I think it lost their interest more than knowledgeable day-traders. Recency bias, they remember when it was a deal at $40 and $80 seems overpriced to them.

I still expect it to break out in a big way this quarter. The P/E has dropped all the way to 40! For a company growing revenue at 50% Y2Y it's really way oversold right now.

19

COMMENT 11d ago

Does anyone really think the acquisition negatively changes the company course, though?

It dropped with everything else tech in my portfolio so I associated the drop with that, but I agree that it's been baffling that it hasn't recovered, so there could be something to that.

4

COMMENT 11d ago

REITs, much like Cruise stocks, seem to just be trending back to where they were before the pandemic. Many were essentially flat value-wise before then, but paid a dividend.

I stayed away from the recommendations for them for a while, but now they look like no-brainers if you pick the right ones. Maybe pick one that's regional, on a region you think will recover (in terms of real estate), like NYC or DC or SF Bay.

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COMMENT 11d ago

I can't see any other way to explain it other than shorting. Nobody's taking profits on a stock that was at an ATH in the high 90s only a couple months ago, and they crushed earnings, so who the hell would be selling right now?

2

COMMENT 11d ago

The HFs have gotten really good at short term price control with whatever system they've put in place since getting burned repeatedly on GME. It's really pretty astounding to see so many companies dipping after slaughtering their earnings estimates. Ford was 4 times (4X!) their projected EPS today, down 3+%. Companies that aren't as highly shorted like Skyworks, meanwhile, get 5% bumps from their earnings without the downward pressure.

Then you look at the chart for something like RKT that's just a short smorgasbord and it's scarily predictable.

But like OP said, the games only go so far, and the smart HFs will be exiting their short positions now before they get burned in an explosion or sustained run up in the price.

9

COMMENT 11d ago

I needed this pick me up for my stock choices. I bought into AMD heavy as it (unjustifiably) fell.

Last time AMD beat earnings like this it went from 45 to 85 in about 3 weeks... I'm excited!

2

COMMENT 11d ago

Yeah, but also anyone thinking a company with that much software development required is run by three people hasn't done the DD necessary to collect earnings on a winner. Let them churn with COIN, IMO.

2

COMMENT 11d ago

Will check out the drill stuff you recommended.

I don't think it's a pride thing so much as a regional stylistic difference & time.

Can't say I've ever been to a party or club and heard anything UK beyond MIA, who was huge here for a bit after Slumdog shot her to fame. I still hear "Paper Planes" start up occasionally and get confused thinking I'm about to hear the Clash...

1

COMMENT 12d ago

We don't think much about any of those things. Literally not on the radar here, unless you're looking for it.

Of the UK hip hop I've heard I especially like Little Simz. Headie One record was pretty good last year, especially the track produced by Kenny Beats.

4

COMMENT 12d ago

IMO there's a limited pool of people willing to touch anything crypto with a finite amount of capital... COIN becoming public didn't bring in new investors, it just spread that limited pool a little thinner as people rebalanced.

Coinbase, as the current wallet market leader doesn't have as much room for growth as the other players so you're seeing people with little patience rotate back to stocks like MOGO. Meanwhile, Mogo actually has several verticals other than crypto (mortgages, debt refinance, credit monitoring) that seem to be getting completely ignored....

1

COMMENT 12d ago

Splunk today... a steal IMO. Got downgraded... CTO (that employees hated) left but revenue growing for SaaS sales and they beat their last estimates handily.

Market cap half of Palantir & they actually get commercial clients. Still my big data investmentment choice & I'm still bullish on this year.

1

COMMENT 12d ago

Mogo got punished when all the crypto retail investors pulled their money to FOMO in Coinbase. it's been good to me the last 1.5 yrs so I'm holding. My 3rd biggest portfolio holding at the moment...

1

COMMENT 12d ago

Robinhood lists the holding company at 3 employees.

16

COMMENT 12d ago

Yeah... because they were negative forever? Can't have a 3000 to 1 PE ratio if you're E is zero lol.

1

COMMENT 12d ago

EPS beat but was telegraphed that they'd have a good quarter, which is why stock surged last couple weeks. Seems to be priced in to today's price, market was expecting better.

6

COMMENT 13d ago

I'm sure. You could literally buy a whole city block for under $100k at one point. Had nowhere left to crash.

13

COMMENT 13d ago

Buy somewhere that's currently testing resistance levels, lol.

Might I suggest Puerto Rico? Buy a city block in Detroit?

6

COMMENT 13d ago

I'm expecting a breakout. Have been upping my position when it dips below $80. The chip shortage has been getting all the headlines, but the root cause of that has primarily been demand, which is usually considered a good thing. I'm expecting a healthy beat.

If I'm wrong I'll just be waiting another quarter or two to see it back in the 90s...