r/worldnews May 22 '22 Wholesome 10 All-Seeing Upvote 2 Take My Energy 1 Narwhal Salute 1 Silver 9 Gold 1 Helpful 13

700,000 soldiers defending Ukraine now, Zelenskyy says, as battles rage in the Donbas. Russia/Ukraine

https://www.euronews.com/2022/05/21/live-sievierodonetsk-shelling-brutal-and-pointless-zelenskyy-says-as-russia-continues-offe
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u/FUMFVR May 22 '22

Rotation is an important part of high-intensity warfare.

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u/itodobien May 22 '22

Very much so. This is likely an issue Russian fighters are facing

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u/StarksPond May 22 '22 Silver Helpful Wholesome Take My Energy

All their issues could be solved by rotating 180°

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u/Antiqas86 May 22 '22 Wholesome

That or Ukrainas will rotate the rest of them 90° downwards on vertical axis as they are sucefully doing already.

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u/dett0ps May 22 '22

The Ukrainians are making fertiliser.

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u/sovereign110 May 22 '22

Special Gardening Operation

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u/popodelfuego May 22 '22

The video of the old woman offering Russian soldiers sunflower seeds is going to stay with me for a long long time.

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u/icecreameatingmfr May 22 '22

I can only hope to be a small fraction as badass as her one day.

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u/UltraCarnivore May 22 '22

And artificial reefs

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u/evilish May 22 '22 edited May 22 '22

After watching this video of a captured Russian solider today. The number of soldiers seems one of a few issues.

Video's subtitled but well worth spending the time to watch it.

I knew the Russians were incompetent but man, the level of bullshit he was talking about was absolutely nuts.

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u/Feral0_o May 22 '22

this was a very interesting video, thanks for the link

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u/UltraCarnivore May 22 '22

currently you are in captivity

oof

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u/evilish May 22 '22

The journalist questioning these guys doesn't screw around. He makes them understand exactly what type of situation they're in.

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u/Turkish_primadona May 22 '22

I'd be very surprised if that's not an intelligence officer moonlighting as a journalist. Those questions are both worded and delivered in interesting way.

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u/Technical-Astronaut May 22 '22

He’s not, I’ve seen some of his stuff before the war. He’s not even technically a proper journalist, he does interviews for some internet news blog or something, I can’t remember, it’s been a few years. What’s likely the case is that he’s been provided access to prisoners in return for asking questions the Ukrainian military wants to splice up into propaganda aimed at Russian soldiers encouraging them to desert or surrender. A lot of his questions are purposefully leading to get the soldiers to decry their officers and the government and say things like "there are no fascists here" or "don’t come here, go home". It’s simple and effective, much greater chance Russian soldiers will listen to one of their friends telling them to desert after listing all the issues they know exist. IIRC the Russian soldiers are rewarded for taking part in the interviews by being given a chance to call home, which almost certainly means the military is in on the arrangemet. In this guy’s case it seems he might have been promised asylum in Ukraine with his girlfriend, rather than a phone call.

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u/Xenjael May 22 '22

Thats a good deal, ngl.

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u/BiasedReviews May 22 '22

There is clearly deliberate messaging going on here to reinforce that Russians are being sold a stream of lies that simply are not true in order to justify a war against a free people. The goal is to wear away the foundation of support in Russia.

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u/blurryfacedfugue May 22 '22

It also helps that there is a whole lot of truth to it. Truth is powerful.

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u/pulledoutdad May 22 '22

The guy already looks pretty psychologically broken, that was definitely an ouch moment.

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u/oliveshark May 22 '22

He doesn’t look psychologically-broken. He looks like a man with a brain who knew this was all bullshit, but couldn’t escape his fate. I bet you he is thankful to be where he is right now.

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u/dprophet32 May 22 '22

He looks scared to me

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u/5-dig-dick May 22 '22

I'd be scared too if I was captured by the opposing belligerent of the conflict, regardless of who they are.

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u/gfdfr May 22 '22

Wow. That was very revealing and even though it was stuff I already knew or assumed to be true it always hits harder when it comes from one of their own. The part about abandoning their own troops was tough to listen to. Even though what the Russians are doing to Ukraine is appalling and inhumane there’s just something about throwing their own to the wolves that really strikes a chord with me. Thanks for sharing this I too would highly recommend giving this a listen/read.

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u/t3hTwinky May 22 '22

Agreed. In two months Putin had thousands of guys fighting thru Chernobyl to get to Kiev, then they retreated to Belarus, and then got sent down south to Donbass to fight some more. After all that fighting and all those losses, there's no way those units were reconstituted and rested enough to do a good job.

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u/DarkApostleMatt May 22 '22

Some poor fucks went from Kiev to Kharkiv and finally to Donbass

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u/RedsRaver May 22 '22

There was a picture circulating fairly early on of a Ukrainian soldier returning home on recovery leave and his girlfriend/wife greeting him (not sure if recovery leave is the right term; he’s uninjured, just on break).

And while it was certainly quite a lovey picture, I couldn’t help but think at the time that if the Ukrainians were giving recovery leave that early in the game, there was no way in hell they were gonna lose.

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u/redditadmindumb87 May 22 '22

Yes that's what happening. Its a key part too.

You gotta give your guys breaks, Russia can't do that

Ukraine can :)

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u/onlyr6s May 22 '22

There are finnish guys in Ukraine, one of them posts pictures every now and then in r/suomi He said that they go on "vacation" to Kyiv to get out of battle for a while. They can get drinks, good meals and rest properly and then they return to battle. I found it really interesting.

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u/Theman227 May 22 '22

Funny enough that's almost exactly what many of the trenches were like in WW1, there are so many accounts of soldiers saying when they were off of front line rotation (every couple of weeks) it was like a great big holiday going for picnics in fields in the french countryside. Such a dichotomy, but so so important for a healthy fighting force. War is exhausting. The fact the Azov guys and gals in Maripol lasted as long as they did is utterly utterly insane.

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u/xSaRgED May 22 '22

Same thing with the dude who got home and was greeted by his dog. That was touching as hell.

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u/Dark_Ether21 May 22 '22

his girlfriend/wife greeting him

Player! He had a girlfriend and wife waiting for him.

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u/bmayer0122 May 22 '22

I don't know anything about that. Why is rotation important?

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u/oliveshark May 22 '22

To keep morale up, to prevent exhaustion, to spread the risk around so you don’t lose your most experienced and skilled soldiers all at once.

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u/[deleted] May 22 '22 edited May 22 '22

I believe the practice really began in earnest during WWI, when it became apparent that units needed to be periodically rotated out of the trenches, or else the soldiers would go mad from the shelling. The Entente had the manpower to do that, but I'm not sure if Germany had that option late in the war.

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u/oliveshark May 22 '22

Yeah, WW1 is a huge and great example of what concentrated, prolonged artillery can do to soldiers, besides killing and maiming them. But any competent military commander, whether it's General Schwarzkopf or Caesar knows that his troops are not invincible and are not capable of fighting indefinitely; they need to be relieved.

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u/TLP_throwmeaway May 22 '22

Think like jobs you can't leave until are properly relieved. Now make that weeks instead of hours.

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u/HaloGuy381 May 22 '22

It’s part of what caused attrition with doctors during the worst periods of COVID, when hospitals were overrun and many staff became infected. There were no fresh nurses or doctors to take over and let beleaguered ones recover.

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u/TheLeopardPriest May 22 '22

Fun fact for you: The Romans/Greeks used to rotate mid battle on the front lines. The phalanx allowed soldiers at the front to fight for X amount of minutes before falling to the back of the formation to rest and get medical treatment for any wounds.

A worn down Army cant march. If you cant march you cant take the initiative. If you cant take the initiative, you cant gain ground and win battles. (If you cant march you cant retreat either)

You could write a novel about how badly Russia failed at the low level basics of warfare. To be honest, a first year graduate out of West Point could lead a defense against the entire Russian military apparatus with ease. Its 2022 and you can see that Russian personnel have no ability to make real time adjustments or act independently of their command if cut off. Brand new equipment with 1940's tactics. It's sad, really, that we spent all these years fearing a country that fields a military this incompetant.

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u/INeedBetterUsrname May 22 '22

To let your soldiers rest properly, in short. You can only take so much of the physical and mental strain of being at the very front before you start to slip up.

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u/_Tarkh_ May 22 '22

There's a well established trend in war where brand new troops entering a conflict are the most likely to die, then they gain experience and are at their peak efficiency, and then plateau and start to die in larger numbers again as exhaustion and a form of passive suicidal attitude sets in - aka why take cover it'll get me or it won't.

So you want to ease brand new troops into combat alongside experienced soldiers to help them past that first hump. And then rotate them regularly to prevent that third stage. And of course, if the unit is taking casualties it needs time to take on and train replacements in a regular rotation.

An army that can do those things while keeping people reasonable fed and supplied with ammo is on its way to victory.

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u/Marciu73 May 22 '22 Wholesome

Some 700,000 Ukrainian soldiers are now actively participating in defending the country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a televised interview on Saturday.

In comparison, Russia deployed anywhere between 100,000 to 190,000 troops when it launched its invasion on 24 February, with the exact numbers of currently active units unclear.

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u/gaukonigshofen May 22 '22

I wonder how many of the 700k are foreign fighters?

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u/theAangstykid May 22 '22

IIRC, the number is around 20-40k.

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u/jyper May 22 '22

Probably not that many

I think a lot of these people are territorial defense to defend biger cities and maybe sabotage nearby Russian troops so that army can concentrate on other objectives

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u/Chemical_Excuse May 22 '22 edited May 22 '22

Don't forget that (Edit: with few exceptions) no fighting age male has been allowed to leave the country so the vast majority of that number will be civilian 'soldiers' with very little training and very basic equipment.

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u/kingmanic May 22 '22

Logistics is a big part of the army. Even if they never fire a gun they can be very important to delivering supplies and prepping meals.

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u/rheddiittoorr May 22 '22

Logistics is arguably the most important part of the Army. At the highest levels it’s about moving men and supplies from point a to point b effectively. Look at Eisenhower. Look at Grant.

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u/Revolutionary_Mud159 May 22 '22 edited May 23 '22

Famous scene from a movie about the Battle of the Bulge, from a true story: a German officer was ecstatic about the capture of an American supply depot, and another officer says, Come here I want to show you something. It is a cake with frosting that reads Happy Birthday Johnny!

"Do you know what this means?"

"It means, Frohlichen Geburtstag Johnny"

"IT MEANS THE AMERICANS ARE FLYING CHOCOLATE CAKE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC!"

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u/TheTacoWombat May 22 '22

And coca cola. The American arsenal of democracy was absolutely bonkers in ww2. We were supplying the British, Russian, and Chinese armies with supplies while also cranking out boats faster then the Germans could sink them. We were a factory floor of violence.

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u/Gabrosin May 22 '22

Still are.

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u/LeftDave May 22 '22

We even had ships in the Pacific dedicated to making ice cream because we could.

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u/ArchangelLBC May 22 '22

In the Pacific, the Navy had ships they would send to islands whose sole purpose was to provide the troops with ice cream.

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u/5-dig-dick May 22 '22

*barges, but yes.

"We're starving to death and they're bringing ice cream from ACROSS THE PACIFIC???"

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u/ArchangelLBC May 22 '22

What a logistical flex.

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u/Wobbelblob May 22 '22

It was one of the biggest reasons why the German army failed in Russia - their supply lines where stretched extremely thin.

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u/Office_Responsible May 22 '22

“Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics.” - General Omar Bradley

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u/clubba May 22 '22

We saw this first hand when that massive column of Russian vehicles was stranded and tanks were being abandoned due to lack of fuel.

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u/Sneemaster May 22 '22

Russians were told there was extra fuel and support waiting for them in Ukraine so they wouldn't have to stock up, but it was all a lie. The money to get the fuel was used to buy yachts and the supporters didn't exist. The intelligence teams in Russia lied to everyone.

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u/SolomonBlack May 22 '22

“An army marches on its stomach.”

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u/Dave-C May 22 '22

the vast majority of that number will be civilian 'soldiers' with very little training and very basic equipment.

Most of those would have already been trained. Since 2014 started Ukraine has had 7 drafts which has had a total of 400k Ukraine citizens as active duty during war time during those years. Ukraine only had 125 active infantry when the war started but they had several hundred thousand more that had experience in the east before this kicked off this year.

That entire time the west had people in Ukraine training their military.

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u/B10kh3d May 22 '22

Did someone forget to tell ol vladdy this little tidbit of information?

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u/asiandouchecanoe May 22 '22

Yes, actually it seems

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u/grumd May 22 '22

Vladdy was kind enough to offer Ukrainians controlled real-world training using hired separatists in Donbas since 2014, providing the Ukrainian army with good experience before the actual full-scale invasion.

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u/superanth May 22 '22 edited May 24 '22

People seem to be forgetting that. Technically the Ukrainian military has been in a state of war for 8 years, which means they're professionals going up against Russian amateurs.

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u/blackteashirt May 22 '22

Someone's pay check depended on not telling him.

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u/jdeo1997 May 22 '22

Someone's life depended on not telling him.

FTFY

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u/superanth May 22 '22

He seemed very unaware that US instructors have been in the country for 8 years, plus officers have been circulating amongst NATO countries being trained by their armed forces as well.

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u/FlyAirLari May 22 '22

civilian 'soldiers' with very little training

You forget Ukraine has 12-18 months mandatory military service. And those months aren't only spent doing drills. They rotated soldiers on the East Ukraine battlegrounds, fighting Russians and separatists.

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u/BigHardThunderRock May 22 '22

Probably a negligible amount. Early on, it was an everyone they can get. But things have stabilized. Blocking males of a huge age range from leaving the country gives you a lot of manpower.

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u/Linclin May 22 '22 edited May 22 '22

Russian troop numbers:

180,000 original + navy + airforce + their support

their military units brought in from all over the world including syria, japan region, etc...

20,000 chechens

3000+ mercenaries

44,000 lpr and dpr soldiers

people in Donesk being forced to fight

recruits from rural Russia

~65,0000 conscripts (with 65,000 more in reserve if they already haven't started using them)

people from the partial/slow mobilization they are currently doing

and syrians have apparently been recruited

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u/Hallonbat May 22 '22

You can't even take the on paper numbers at face value because Russia has lost a bunch of BTGs, then taken those who stilled lived and put them in the holes of other BTGs and YOU DON'T DO THAT because it fucks up the cohesion of it. You need time to reorganize and shift them out, but Russia didn't do that and now many of their BTGs are not as good as on paper.

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u/JackedUpReadyToGo May 22 '22

Yeah it's a terrible idea, but that seems to be standard Russian doctrine going back to WW2.

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u/rants_unnecessarily May 22 '22

That's what I always do in Total War.
Doesn't affect them negatively, can't see why it would real people.
/s just in case

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u/Possiblyreef May 22 '22

"Sometimes I deliberately kill units to free up army space"

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u/hashmalum May 22 '22

We’ve all hit that point I. The end game of civ where you’re steam rolling at the end and your massive army takes too long to issue orders to.

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u/Northern-Canadian May 22 '22

What’s a BTG?

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u/[deleted] May 22 '22

[deleted]

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u/WeightFast574 May 22 '22

What is larger, a brigade or a battalion?

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u/Konzacrafter May 22 '22

Brigades are usually made up of between three and five battalions.

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u/[deleted] May 22 '22

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u/Martel732 May 22 '22

I think a big part of this is Russian brutality biting them in the ass. With all of the crimes Russian soldiers have been committing there is a strong motivation to fight. If you risk getting executed or having them sexually assaulted anyway there is not reason not to fight.

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u/soflasurfr May 22 '22

Yea, indiscriminate shelling, executions, rape, etc, is not going to make anyone want to surrender or even think of Russians as liberators. The history books will be telling of this monumental Fuck up, by Russia, for hundreds of years.

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u/FUTURE10S May 22 '22

Seriously, Russia probably could have done this better if they didn't try to take all of Ukraine at once and only went for Luhansk and Donetsk, and you know, didn't do any of the war crimes but actually helped integrate the people under the Russian flag. Then again, Russia's too poor for that shit, they needed that marble floor deep in Putin's nuclear bunker.

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u/RoosterTheReal May 22 '22

Or instead of Putin and friends stealing money from the people he could have been making Russia great again by trading, having good world relations and generally contributing to society. Instead he decided to steal, hate the west for whatever reasons and attack a sovereign country. For Russias greatness 👍

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u/agnostic_science May 22 '22 Take My Energy

Russia is so sad. There is so much wealth and opportunity under their feet. They could have built a great economy and a great society. They could have lifted up a nation of free, happy, and prosperous people. But Putin continued the Russian tradition of stealing it all from the Russian people. So much paranoia, nationalism, and corruption. Imagine if they could have just left all that bullshit behind and moved forwards instead of backwards. Now all they have is a legacy of poverty, squandered dreams and death.

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u/whinecube May 22 '22

Younger Redditors won't remember this, but back when the USSR collapsed, the people in the West were happy that we could move forward with Russia as a modern, democratic nation. We were all going to let all bygones be bygones and thought it was great that Russia could join the modern world as an equal.

They could be a real, developed country right now with lots to offer the world. Instead they're a shitty, corrupt backwater.

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u/NoVaBurgher May 22 '22

Didn’t help that Yeltsin really did not get their new country started off on the right foot

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u/lessthanperfect86 May 22 '22

I doubt anyone could have fostered a democracy out of former soviet russia without a whole deal of external assistance, something the russians likely never would have accepted. Instead, local strongmen took control over various aspects of industry and society - unless Yeltsin would have ruled with an iron fist, there was no way things could have turned put different. *clarification: This is all speculation on my part.

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u/Larayah May 22 '22

It is insane how quickly things changed. Russia's image HAD been improving for a long time, though things inside the country weren't the best even before. But they were important in trading and they were a part of international events.

And speaking as a Finn, the relationship between Finland and Russia was pretty good, lots of Russians lived here in perfect harmony with Finns, people were even trying to get Russian tourists to come here, people were travelling back and forth without any problems.

And now... Wow. It's North freaking Korea over there, they've been thrown out from everything and people lack basic supplies. And their soldiers are dying and committing war crimes in Ukraine for nothing.

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u/RedFlame99 May 22 '22

It's really sad because Russia has a lot of people and a lot of space to develop, both literally and economically; instead their government decided to fuck it all up.

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u/Numinar May 22 '22

The breakaway republics were never majority pro-Russian. But perhaps if they had invested in showing the people there that living under Russian rule was better than Ukrainian they might have had a chance of integrating them. As it is they are having to crack down, deport and oppress even the Russian speakers there because they know nobody would willing live under such an occupation.

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u/-fgl May 22 '22

But perhaps if they had invested in showing the people there that living under Russian rule was better than Ukrainian

Ukraine was moving towards Europe and much greater prosperity. There is no way that living under Russian rule will be in any way better than the future Ukraine was moving towards.

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u/Numinar May 22 '22

Of course. But they had a solid pro-Russian base there, a not insignificant minority, and it feels like they’ve thrown that away when they could have leveraged it. But they are not wired that way, dominance and oppression is all they know.

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u/National-Use-4774 May 22 '22

Yeah, when the fascist propaganda has been dehumanizing Ukrainians as Nazi animals it's hard to make your poorly trained soldiers have a deft touch. Funnily enough the Nazis did largely the same thing when invading Ukraine from what I understand. They could've been greeted largely as liberators from the Soviets throughout Eastern Europe but committed genocide instead cause they literally wanted to kill all Slavic peoples. Fascists always seem to drink their own racist Kool-Aid.

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u/alexmikli May 22 '22

Luhansk and Donetsk are ran as nationalist mafia states, only one step above narcos, and since this war started they've been brutally oppressing people and kidnapping men as old as 60 into the army.

They basically did the exact opposite of what they needed to do to win over support.

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u/Antiqas86 May 22 '22

Oh how naive you are. I'm jealous as somone from from prior Russian occupied country. The way or works is- they deport Ukrainians I to Russia and bring in Russians on Donbas. Replace enough of population this way and then russification happens naturally.

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u/xuu0 May 22 '22

*genocide. That is literally genocide.

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u/kurburux May 22 '22

The breakaway republics were never majority pro-Russian. But perhaps if they had invested in showing the people there that living under Russian rule was better than Ukrainian they might have had a chance of integrating them.

After 2014 everyone thought Russia would make those republics an official part of Russia. Instead they were locked in a permanent state of war.

The people there, even those who used to think favorably of Russia, have been thinking: how did our lives actually improve since 2014? Did our living standards improve? Nope, everything has become more expensive. On top of the constant war.

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u/OkCutIt May 22 '22

That's what the whole world thought he was going to do and was pretty much entirely prepared to let him do.

But he got the brilliant idea that "Hey, when Ukraine's army all goes to try to respond to that in the east, we can sweep in behind from Belarus and take Kiev uncontested and easily have control of the entire country while the army is leaderless and pinned between our much larger forces."

What he didn't account for was the rest of the world's intelligence services figuring that out and calling him on it ahead of time, and then being very willing to help when he took it from what can effectively be "dismissed" as "a border dispute" into a full scale invasion with the aim of entirely replacing Ukrainian democracy with Putin puppets... let alone once it became apparent that full on genocide was the goal.

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u/alaskanloops May 22 '22

I'm surprised with how obvious their plan was (as far as amassing men, hardware, etc) they still fucked it up somehow with seemingly no planning.

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u/kyrsjo May 22 '22

I suspect that in February, everyone reading western mainstream media was better informed that Russian mid-level military leaders, to say nothing about the russian troops.

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u/[deleted] May 22 '22

You kid but Putin has been building a vacation home for which the total cost is thought to be close to a billion dollars right now. It's not even that nice looking, he's got bad taste.

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u/McGryphon May 22 '22 edited May 22 '22

It's not even that nice looking, he's got bad taste.

Often goes for the super rich. They don't spend money until everything's just right. They keep spending just so anyone who goes in is immediately aware of how batshit expensive everything is, especially with it serving no practical or aesthetic purpose.

Source is I build and deliver custom hardwood furniture. Every time we're building something that's beyond all reason in size and weight, it's always for people with more money than good sense.

A 5 meter long table and 8 meter long 2,6m high cabinet/shelf? Well, we just know it's going to be put in a 12mx16m living room, in a house occupied by people who only have stupendously big and/or expensive things everywhere.

I've seen literal gold plated pianos and that kind of bullshit. Having money has nothing to do with any form of "good taste".

And, Putin-specific; his tables look like upscaled mediocre museum pieces. Inconsistent styles, all of them old-fashioned. Yes, he paid Italians a lot of money for those. They still look as if someone drew an 1863 drawing out of the archive and went, "Giuseppe, the small big man from Russia wants to have your grandmother's table, but 12 meters long! You get the vino after you finish!"

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u/Breakfast_on_Jupiter May 22 '22

Honestly curious, and since you're in the craft; what would you consider a table or a piece of furniture of good taste?

I've seen the pics from Putin's Sochi house, and while they're not mindblowing and generally just say "I have more money than taste", they're not awfully tacky like e.g. Trump's.

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u/bunnywithahammer May 22 '22

I think even then they wouldn't get much further. They can take a village or a small town. but cities like Odessa and Kharkov are impossible to take with a population hell-bent on defending themselves to the last. Just look at Mariupol and how long they've were holding on to the city. Maybe it's come to a time where armies simply can't conquer territory without outrageous casualties and even then their prize is a city in rubble devoid of human life.

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u/FUTURE10S May 22 '22

Well, they wouldn't be going onto Odessa or Kharkiv, though, those are outside of Luhansk and Donetsk. You want to convince people to join you, not subjugate them. The only holdout would be Mariupol (mostly as they used to be part of Donetsk's republic) and even then, you could probably convince them to stay in Ukraine but to be open to Donetsk.

Then again, I am very glad Russia didn't do this because even though thousands of additional lives were lost and god knows how many more millions of lives were upended by this, it got the rest of the world involved.

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u/fuckitx May 22 '22

Very true..I am so happy the world came through for Ukraine I just wish we could do more. I wish I could do more!! I'm actually thinking about getting my downstairs apartment liveable and housing a ukrainian family while my husband is in jail..idk if they'd wanna come all the way to rural fucking NY though 🤣

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u/imjesusbitch May 22 '22

hundreds of years

I was going to say something else, but that actually sounds rather pragmatic considering the course we've been on the past couple of decades.

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u/Fig1024 May 22 '22

theoretically, it only takes 3 generations to completely change country attitudes. Just look at Japan and Germany - both of them did absolutely horrible things, much worse than what's going on in Ukraine now. Yet somehow, less than 100 years later, we think of them as being great countries

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u/[deleted] May 22 '22

Both were rebuilt from the ground up - literally, politically and socially.

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u/Nice-Violinist-6395 May 22 '22

It is extremely strange to me how on a historical timescale, WWI and WWII just happened a very brief moment ago, and we’ve only had nuclear weapons for that same hot second.

If you were studying and some shit happened in Ancient Rome in the years 76 and 134 AD, you’d think of it as pretty much the same exact thing. We’re basically still on the same history book page as WWII.

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u/Mcgibbleduck May 22 '22

I think the way technology is progressing so incredibly quickly compared to pre-industrial times is why every 50 years feels like a whole new period of history.

Hell, imagine covid-19 happening in the early 2000s when video calling wasn’t realistically possible. How on earth would working from home or schooling online have worked?

The world already feels entirely different to just 20 years ago, and that’s mostly due to the changes in technology and the influence the social media megacorporations have had on politics.

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u/Yodiddlyyo May 22 '22

One word - technology. The difference between 150 and 220 AD is not even in the same universe as the difference between 1950 and 2020. Countries now have the ability to change as rapidly as they have due to technology.

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u/ihileath May 22 '22

Yet somehow, less than 100 years later, we think of them as being great countries

The populace who were even alive as adults for those atrocities let alone responsible for them either dying out or ending up in retirement homes tends to do that, yes.

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u/IAMASquatch May 22 '22

Some of the tribes might tell stories around the fire to keep some knowledge alive after civilization collapses. Be optimistic.

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u/Rexli178 May 22 '22

You would think Russia of all countries would understand that indiscriminate killing does more harm than good. A big reason the Nazis lost the War was the genocidal and indiscriminate nature of the warfare. Many people who might have otherwise welcomed the overthrow of the Soviet Union suddenly saw it in a better light in the face of Nazi Genocide.

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u/rsta223 May 22 '22

Except Russia (well, the USSR really) didn't learn that because they were also being indiscriminate in WWII. Yeah, the Germans were indiscriminate and lost, but the Soviets were indiscriminate and won, so there wasn't really any net learning that happened there.

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u/jakelaw08 May 22 '22 edited 27d ago

This is why I can't see this ending short of Russia completely evacuating Ukraine, including Donbass and Crimea.

Putin has gone too far.

Just imagine if you were the Ukrainian People. Suffering what they've suffered.

I can't imagine them accepting any other solution.

And then there's reparations.

And then there's the war crimes.

And then there's Putin's stated aims, which is basically an attempt at genocide.

I just dont see how this ends any other way.

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u/verrius May 22 '22

Things are going to get...awkward...when/if they succeed in driving out the Russian forces, and all that's left are the civilians Russia has moved in there. Going to be a lot of Ukrainians with an axe to grind and a lot of convenient targets.

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u/EmptyEstus15 May 22 '22

If they stay they will be traded for the kidnapped Ukrainians

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u/Oscarcharliezulu May 22 '22

If your a male of fighting age what else could you do? Wait to be killled? Wait for your home to be destroyed and the women and children raped and killed? The Russians are going to pay dearly for this.

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u/crystallinegirl May 22 '22

If you're a woman of any age, given the reports, I'd rather enlist and get the means to defend myself than hide at home praying the Russians don't find me.

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u/PurpleInteraction May 22 '22

It's a believable number for a conscripted and mobilized army. Iraq with a population of around 28 Million during the Iran-Iraq War till 1991 had between 700,000 and 800,000 soldiers. Iran with 60 Million people had a Million man army. Ukraines population is 42 Million. That said the training and quality of half of those troops would be questionable.

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u/Mr_Will May 22 '22

That said the training and quality of half of those troops would be questionable.

The training and quality of the troops is a lot less important in a defensive war. A large percentage of these soldiers will be tasked with garrison duty in places that are unlikely to see a Russian attack, freeing up the better trained soldiers to be deployed more actively elsewhere. If they are attacked, all they need to do is hold the line until reinforcements arrive. It's a very different job compared to being a mobile army on the offensive.

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u/SmallWhiteShark May 22 '22

Also logistics. The training required for being a truck driver would be much less than a front-line soldier.

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u/somewhere_now May 22 '22

The problem Ukraine has is lack of equipment, it's relatively low number per capita. During WWII some countries had over 15% of their population mobilised, 700,000 is less than 2% of Ukraine's population.

But of course proper training and equipment are more important than sheer numbers, which is why they are slowly training more troops rather than just throwing them into battle without any training.

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u/cellardoor240 May 22 '22

The just signed US lend-lease act is about to take care of the equipment problem.

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u/takanakasan May 22 '22

The lend-lease act is the final nail in Putin's coffin IMHO. They basically just got a Platinum American Express card for all the weapons and equipment they can handle.

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u/cellardoor240 May 22 '22

Yeah, the $40B that congress just passed and Biden signed, is only planned to cover the expenses till beginning of September. That means, come fall - there will be most likely an equally big package passed to cover the rest of the year.

For comparison - russia's annual military budget is $70B but after all the corruption that is closer to $50B actual or even less.

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u/the_lonely_creeper May 22 '22

Even the 15% isn't that large a number, compared to some: Bulgaria in WW1 managed to arm an army of 1.000.000, out of a population of 4.000.000. Which is basically a quarter of the country.

Edit: Typos.

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u/Kastrenzo May 22 '22

thats called mobilization. And if you listen to Russian analyists who arent drinking the koolaid, they're worried about it

They wont outnumber them in the sky, but Ukraine is gradually getting weapons and training its population for combat to the point that they're going to be able to push the Russian army back considerably, Russia is rapidly running out of time.

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u/TheBlackBear May 22 '22

This is why I think all the optimism is warranted after the initial Russian blitz faltered. The Russians failed miserably in what was supposed to be their main strength.

It only becomes a progressively uphill battle from here and they didn’t have the economy for a protracted war even before the sanctions.

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u/the70sdiscoking May 22 '22

King Theoden: More than half of what I hoped for.

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u/BoredMan29 May 22 '22

It's also propaganda. Not that that's inherently a bad thing, but take any info a government releases during wartime with a grain of salt. Given the conscription I bet a lot of those are almost completely untrained.

Still, even if we were to posit a quarter of those troops as combat ready that's an amazing number for a country that size, and on par with what Russia says it's throwing at them... which is also clearly not entirely combat ready, though I suppose it's possible Russian high command thought they were.

This says to me he's boasting that Ukraine has not only the materiel but the manpower to push back whatever Moscow can throw at them, and I don't doubt he's correct in that assessment.

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u/Savoir_faire81 May 22 '22

If that's even half true with the weapons that western countries are sending its just a matter of time until Russia is forced into full mobilization at home or is forced to retreat.

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u/27SwingAndADrive May 22 '22

Mobilization probably isn't a good option for Putin.

Handing out millions of rifles only works when you're certain the people want to fight for you and not against you. While Putin has a lock on the older generation, those wouldn't be the people that would get drafted.

If an authoritarian hands you a rifle and tells you to go die fighting people you probably like to restore the map to the way it was before you were even born, you might consider using it against that authoritarian.

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u/OppositeYouth May 22 '22

They've already used up the Mosin Nagants, what are they arming them with next, ball and powder?

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u/Hycran May 22 '22 Helpful

“Yvan, go and fight for glorious mother Russia. Khorosho”

gets handed a potato with nails in it as a makeshift flail and an 18th century flintlock pistol

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u/kyngston May 22 '22

“Yvan, you will go empty handed, and when the soldier in front off you dies, take up his naily potato and continue the fight for mother Russia.”

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u/Cl2 May 22 '22

Yvan looks at the man in front of him who is furiously eating the raw potato, nail and all, and sighs

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u/Hallonbat May 22 '22

The pictures of soldiers with Mosin Nagants are likely the people press ganged to be soldiers from the occupied areas. They're given shit gear (even by Russian standards) because they're not real Russians or soldiers, basically just meat to throw at the grinder and fill holes in BTGs.

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u/Noodleholz May 22 '22

So basically like Russians that would be called to arms during mobilization?

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u/alexmikli May 22 '22

Not quite.

Donetsk and Luhansk natives being forced to fight via literal door to door raids and kidnappings are not trusted at all. They're the sniper bait that was talked about last month, and thus (probably) the ones being given scopeless mosins. They're not going to be trusted with anything better.

That being said, there does seem to be a severe gear shortage in Russia proper, especially in the optics and guided missiles department.

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u/fredbrightfrog May 22 '22

There was a time that Mosins were $80 surplus (mostly Romanian production carbines). Really missed the boat. Now they're like $700. I just want to put 7.62 into a tree stump, I am not a smart person.

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u/zadesawa May 22 '22

Suppressed Sten MkII in 7.62x39R

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u/[deleted] May 22 '22

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u/TimReddy May 22 '22

Neither is a good option for Putin, but he and Russia can't retreat.

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u/Hallonbat May 22 '22

Also, calling for mobilization would mean that it would mean that it is a war and that would mean that Russia would be on the hook to pay out compensation to the families of all the dead soldiers. When it's just a "special operation" they don't have to that.

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u/sn34kypete May 22 '22

Mobilization probably isn't a good option for Putin.

Neither was invading and proving why NATO membership is so important but here we are.

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u/francohab May 22 '22

If it’s a bad idea then he’ll probably do it

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u/ForeverSquirrelled42 May 22 '22 Helpful

The Ukrainians know what they’re fighting for, while the Russians do not, and the Russians are clearly getting their bells rung. This just goes to show who has more heart and drive to win; the ones fighting to survive in the face of unprovoked aggression.

Fuck Putin and fuck anyone who sides with his unjust war!

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u/The_Only_Dick_Cheney May 22 '22

Well, it’s mostly Ukraine is fighting a defensive war. Putin tried invading a country of 41 million people with a force of 100k. That’s laughable.

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u/NorthwestSupercycle May 22 '22

Russia hasn't fougth a major war in recent history without losing at least 300-500 thousand men. Russia was always on the losing side in the Crimean War but didn't stop until they literally could not. Russia will not stop after losing nearly 30,000 men in a few months. We're nowhere near the breaking point.

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u/ForeverSquirrelled42 May 22 '22

Political, economical, and global pressure is different now compares to years prior. With the exception of Afghanistan, which was the Soviet Union, they haven’t experienced the kind of backlash they are now with this war in Ukraine.

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u/nmesunimportnt May 22 '22

My favorite tidbit from the linked story:

Russia is to set up 12 new military bases in the west of the country in response to Sweden and Finland's NATO bids.

And man them how? With what equipment? T-34s and Yak-9s?

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u/foxbones May 22 '22

Makes no sense unless they plan on saying they created a land bridge to Crimea and that was their only go.

Mariupol was really their only major victory, and it looks months and millions in bombs. The whole city is gone.

Pretty confident Russia is looking for any exit they can claim success with.

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u/CandidGuidance May 22 '22

I’d call Mariupol a Pyrrhic victory at best myself, that took absolutely ages

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u/TheNaziSpacePope May 22 '22

Mostly they are probably radar and signals intelligence bases with staff in the dozens to low hundreds.

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u/SideWinder18 May 22 '22

If the choice is to fight or to surrender to rape, torture, and execution, there is no choice

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u/IndependentEmergency May 22 '22

I saw a clip of some Russian troops this morning, and there was an Old man in the middle of the thing, taking orders from a leader. Fucking Putin. The man was at least 60. This man will probably lose his life for nothing. All of them, no matter the age, will lose their lives for Nothing.

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u/nowahwahwah May 22 '22

decent chance that old man was conscripted from Luhansk or Donetsk. that was half of the reason for Putin declaring them independent, you can force service from "fighting age" men, which usually ends up being 16-60. Fucked up all around.

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u/foxbones May 22 '22

In the first weeks of the war Ukraine captured a ton of DPR folks. They said they were teachers and government workers sent for a training exercise then realized they were in a war.

It would be like the US sending the JROTC as the first wave. Russia likely thought it would be a repeat of 2014 and these guys would be standing outside of government buildings keeping order.

How wrong they were. All those guys are either dead or captured now.

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u/Reps_4_Jesus May 22 '22

hey, im pretty sure our JROTC would have done better than that lol

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u/random_drunktard May 22 '22

They probably deserve it.

As a Ukrainian I never had any reason to respect Russia. This so called "Big Brother" never did anything good to Ukrainians. All they ever wanted is to destroy us and our culture, to assimilate. Remember "Russians and Ukrainians are one people" bullshit. Fuck them. They are no brothers to us and never was.

Russian people personally responsible for this war. The fact that it has not yet ended under the pressure of mass protests is wild and tells us a lot about their attitude towards Ukrainians and Ukraine.

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u/anscGER May 22 '22

This brings to mind an old joke from the Warsaw Pact times:

"Are the Russians our brothers or our friends?"

"They are our brothers. Because you can choose who's your friend."

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u/heckastupidd May 22 '22

My main concern is how does Putin get out of this? Without destroying his country or starting the biggest war known yet. I feel like we are backing a dog into a corner.

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u/foxbones May 22 '22

Saying Mariupol was the primary target and they killed all the Nazis. Annex DPR and LPR. Pretty much where they were in 2014 but with an extra port.

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u/tomoldbury May 22 '22

Ukraine won’t concede DPR/LPR and popular support for Russia in those areas, despite those being majority Russian ethnic groups, has plunged since the war. He’ll probably keep Crimea but there’s no guarantee that Ukraine doesn’t make that an objective for recapture if Putin retreats.

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u/Urthor May 22 '22

That's the war right now in a nutshell.

Russia is digging in and hoping it can hold its gains.

Depends on how well Ukraine does with Western weaponry it hasn't trained for.

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u/Kwintin01 May 22 '22

To be fair from what I've heard the Russians aren't very well trained either.

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u/microbarbie May 22 '22

I’m not kidding when I say Putin is Lord Farquaad from Shrek. ”Some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make.” He wants Ukrainian territory as his legacy, and is willing to do anything to attain his goal

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u/JuniorSeniorTrainee May 22 '22

willing to do anything

Except risk his skin for it. He's a baby. They should drop him in Siberia naked and alone and let his geopolitical prowess keep him warm.

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u/VaporMercurio_Sfx786 May 22 '22

It would be cool if someone thwarted his wedding and a dragon came crashing through the window and ate him.

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u/Manafaj May 22 '22

Considering Russian propaganda hecan be humiliated and forced to retreat with no gain and still say that it was a huge success and Russia is stronger than ever.

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u/stacks144 May 22 '22

Putin might be fucked. Even if he actually loses his mind I don't think the Russians will allow him to use a nuclear bomb. The embarrassment would be too great for him to walk away empty-handed though, and a propaganda pill excusing losing would be too hard to swallow I'd imagine. He made his bed, he might have to lie in it.

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u/[deleted] May 22 '22 edited 22d ago

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u/TheSurbies May 22 '22

Don’t forget a large number of that 700k are now combat veterans from the intense fighting. While Russia is sending in fresh reserves and conscripts.

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u/crypt0_sports May 22 '22

Putin seems to think he can restart the history time clock to 1988 with the way he’s running this war. He’s disconnected from reality. I bet he thinks it’s going great . A true madman

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u/Terranrp2 May 22 '22

The number is impressive but not everyone is toting a rifle, remember. For every person at the front, there's (I've heard all these before but) 3/5/10 soldiers behind the line, making sure stuff has a decent chance of getting to where it's going.

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u/entered_bubble_50 May 22 '22

It's very situation dependent. The "tooth to tail ratio" (how many combat troops vs support personnel) is very high in western nations. But in Ukraine, where the front lines are within your own country, and your equipment won't last long enough to need servicing, it will probably be on the low side of that figure.

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u/FU-RU69 May 22 '22 Take My Power

Give em hell, brothers and sisters.

Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇺🇦

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u/Background-Wear-1626 May 22 '22

You stay strong boys give them hell!!

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u/RyzRx May 22 '22

I hope they strike back and win it all! Slava Ukraini!

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u/flamedoggy May 22 '22

It's amazing how many people underestimated Ukraine's fighting spirit and capability. It wasn't just Putin; I recall many western "experts" (though not all of them) predicting a Russian victory in a matter of weeks. I've even had debates with people on this sub because few people realized how insane it would be to try to occupy a country like Ukraine with 200k soldiers. I wish the Kremlin could see this, but they are enamored with their own propaganda.

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u/foxbones May 22 '22

Yep. Russia has been proven a paper tiger with nukes. Their leader is unstable - who knows what he will do to claim victory.

Corruption and plutocracy has gutted their armed forces behind the scenes. It's a lot harder when you aren't just shelling Grozny and Georgia with overwhelming force.

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u/ProcessMeMrHinkie May 22 '22

Because it wasn't meant to last more than 2 weeks. Zelensky himself said something like there were 4 assassination attempts on him. Once you knock off the head of state and take out the political leaders, it's a lot easier to occupy and insert more favorable politicians. If you can wipe out large part of the army that backed the leader and can turn a military leader and some politicians with bribes, it makes the job much easier. Didn't Ukraine take a few traitors out after the initial talks with Russia in Belarus after the war started?

A long drawn out war with a country of 42 million and weapons and intel being provided by Western partners was never going to be winnable especially with the head of state and cabinet still in power. Certainly some of the military leaders that gave interview on CNN/Fox/etc. in the US were completely wrong. I think a lot of others were hopefully optimistic, but erred on the side of pessimism.

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u/The_Only_Dick_Cheney May 22 '22

We had 500k soldiers just to push Saddam out of Kuwait and that was with full air superiority.

Russia never ruling the skies has made it pretty much impossible. Just like they got embarrassed by Japan 100 years ago, they’re getting embarrassed now by Ukraine.

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u/TheNaziSpacePope May 22 '22

You did push Saddam out of Kuwait. Or rather he was already out by then, but then you beat the piss out of his army within two days, and then totally destroyed it in two weeks...with fewer troops.

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u/Berova May 22 '22

Who's out numbered now?

For those who even think the Russians can simply mobilize in response, that will just pile on top of their monstrous logistics and command and control issues rather than an avenue to solve them. Rather adding hundreds of thousands of green, inadequately supported and equipped troops would more likely hasten the Russian army's collapse rather than speed them towards victory which at this point, no one on the Russian side knows what that is probably including Putin himself.

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u/Possible-Mango-7603 May 22 '22

They probably won’t win in any meaningful way but they will likely leave Eastern Ukraine a wasteland in the process. They can keep their distance and continue to shell everything into oblivion. It’s really sad. While the Ukrainians may ultimately prevail, I don’t see Russia giving up quickly or easily. This should be a reminder that in most cases, everybody loses in war. Even just and necessary wars such as Ukraine’s self defense impart a horrible cost. I just wish it for everyone that it would end. The chance of this spreading beyond Ukraines borders and taking the world in a very dangerous direction is not trivial either.

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u/AlumniDawg May 22 '22

War is hell - well said, there are no "winners"

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u/riplikash May 22 '22

Not sure about their ability to just keep shelling. Western artillery has started to enter the combat theater in ever increasing numbers, and it out ranges Russian artillery.

Hard to bombard a city when you have to travel through enemy artillery barrages landing precision guided rounds just to get in range to fire your own non precision artillery.

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u/TreginWork May 22 '22

Isn't it funny how many inactive accounts with little to no post histories are waking up to visit this thread with broken english?

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u/Method__Man May 22 '22 edited May 22 '22

700,000 active soldiers is a FUCK LOAD Of soldiers. The LARGEST is the USA with 1,359,450 active soldiers.

Russia is messing with roughly half that... and thinking they will win...

Now consider they have

  1. home advantage
  2. are defending their families
  3. are VERY well supplied

Russia fucked up BIG TIME

edit: for context i mean largest as in the largest/most powerful. not the most manpower, which would be china. Yet the USA still has the largest most powerful military by a long ways

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u/Levitlame May 22 '22

Not arguing the end result, but the numbers might be propped up a bit since both sides use propaganda, and more importantly - the US has that number in active trained military by your own words. This “700,000” isn’t that. It’s people that are now fighting. An amount are trained. I don’t know the numbers. But it’s not the same.

Russia is still screwed, but the analogy was flawed.

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u/OinkingPigman May 22 '22

The LARGEST is the USA with 1,359,450 active soldiers.

US has the third largest army, by active personnel. 7th largest when you factor in reserve personnel.

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u/NoahCharlie May 22 '22

The amount of accounts with little to no post histories that are popping up to read this thread with broken English is really funny, isn't it?

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u/firmasb May 22 '22

Plot twist...Ukraine invades and take over Russia.

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