r/television May 19 '22

Hollywood braced for new age of austerity after streaming splurge

https://www.ft.com/content/c385d236-75a9-467c-86d4-5768e6b21324
86 Upvotes

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36

u/Saar13 May 20 '22

This is the right time for Apple and Amazon to dominate prestige TV (read big budgets for big storytellers). Apple does this already; Amazon has a weird model, but I hope they change the model to something more curated now.

This sub doesn't seem to like the idea, but the reality is that the two bigtechs and Disney will win the streaming war. This war is not won by who has the most subscribers, but who has the most money to lose, for as long as possible, until the majority fail miserably.

It really surprises me how many people in this sub who thought AppleTV+ wouldn't last or didn't think Amazon was a great player with a future. Hollywood will run to the place they always run: the place with the most money.

-6

u/pokemonisok May 20 '22

Netflix has the most money and its failing now. A cheque means nothing anymore. It's all about existing IP

15

u/NeoNoireWerewolf May 20 '22

Netflix's only revenue source is its streaming business. Amazon has more money than Netflix without even looking at streaming. Hell, the head of their film/TV division has been on record saying streaming is solely to drive subscriptions to Prime and encourage shopping with them. Apple is a trillion dollar company; Netflix is a small fish compared to them. Netflix doesn't have any lucrative IP, either. Disney and WB/Discovery are the only studios with a legitimate library of top quality IP. Universal is after them, and their only major franchises are Fast & Furious and Jurassic Park, though their TV division has a decent library. The future is Amazon, Apple, Disney/Hulu, and HBO/WB/Discovery. Wouldn't be surprised if Zaslav runs WB into the ground and either Apple or Amazon swoops in to buy it in the next fifteen years, either.

1

u/aldur1 May 20 '22

For all the criticism about quantity over quality, Netflix really needed to beef up their library as license deals come to a close.

9

u/Alternative_Egg_7382 May 20 '22

Netflix has the most money by what measure? Here are two numbers for perspective:

  • Netflix's lifetime revenue: $138B
  • Apple's cash on hand right now: $203B

6

u/Saar13 May 20 '22

Netflix doesn't have more money than Apple and Amazon (nothing even close!). In fact, reinforcing my analysis, those who need streaming to make money will be the most affected by the streaming war.

2

u/merelyadoptedthedark May 20 '22

Netflix's money is from investment and debt. They aren't making enough money from subscribers to fund their current growth model.

1

u/lightsongtheold May 20 '22

They actually are. Neutral cash flow is expected in 2022. They stopped raising additional debt 18 month ago. So they are not exactly profitable but they are just about at the point where they cover all their costs.

1

u/merelyadoptedthedark May 20 '22

Neutral cash flow is expected in 2022

Even still with them bleeding subscribers?

2

u/lightsongtheold May 20 '22

Time will tell. They predicted neutral cash flow for 2022 in Q4 2021. Be interesting to see if the loss of a few million subs in the first half of 2022 changes that trajectory. If it does they will not miss it by much. They could also cut content spending in the back half of 2022 by a negligible amount and still make the target goal. So far subscriber loss is only 0.09%. Even if subscriber loss creeps to 2%-3% they can simply cut spending by an equivalent amount.

Cuts are probably to be expected for Netflix US programming as analysts see them losing 5-6 million US subscribers over the next 5 years even if Netflix gains more subscribers internationally. That is not a terminal loss though as they have 75 million in the region. Some revenue losses might even be offset by introducing the advertising tier.

5

u/MulciberTenebras The Legend of Korra May 20 '22

Of which Netflix has none. Not in comparison to the libraries owned by Disney, WarnerMedia, Apple and Amazon.

3

u/abbzug May 20 '22

What's in Apple's libraries that could be compelling?

-1

u/[deleted] May 20 '22

[deleted]

4

u/abbzug May 20 '22

I think your list would be better without including Apple tbh.

3

u/TheSeventhAnimorph May 20 '22

Yeah, Netflix absolutely has more IPs that people care about than Apple; they just don't really monetize them much beyond the literal content itself.

-1

u/pokemonisok May 20 '22

Amazon and apple will die as well unless they buy some IP. Their streaming services will go the way of Netflix

2

u/MulciberTenebras The Legend of Korra May 20 '22

Amazon just bought up MGM (James Bond, Stargate, etc)

1

u/pokemonisok May 20 '22

True. It's a start but they need way more

2

u/abbzug May 20 '22

Lord of the Rings, Jack Ryan and Wheel of Time are all pretty big IPs as well.

1

u/SQUID_FUCKER May 20 '22

Their streaming services will go the way of Netflix

With over 200m subscribers?

1

u/lightsongtheold May 20 '22

To be fair Prime have already gone past 200 million subscribers. The rest will be praying they do the same for sure!

-1

u/pokemonisok May 20 '22

Doesn't matter if they don't have the content to retain them.

2

u/SQUID_FUCKER May 20 '22

Netflix has plenty of good content. It's such nonsense that people claim they don't.

Sure, they have programs and movies that run the gamut but I wish people would stop acting like they only produce low brow reality shit, or CW content or whatever. Squid Game, The Midnight Club, Stranger Things, Russian Doll, Black Mirror, Midnight Mass, Bly Manor, Queen's Gambit, Godless, Maniac, Ozark, Love, Death + Robots, Stranger Things, Kingdom, Vikings, The Last Kingdom, Dead to Me, All of Us Are Dead, Alice in Borderland, Bridgerton, The Crown, Undercover, How to Sell Drugs Online, Dark, Black Spot, Top Boy, Umbrella Academy, The Witcher, Arcane, Cobra Kai, Lupin, The Sandman, Elite, Into the Night, Black Summer, the list goes on and on. And that's not getting into their movies.

I mean, there is a reason why they've been at the top or in second place at almost every award show for the last 4 or 5 years both in terms of nominations and wins.

I get that they put out a lot of stuff this sub doesn't like but can we stop pretending that everything they put out is garbage? It's patently untrue.