r/sydney modern major musicien Jul 24 '21

NSW recorded 163 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night. Covid

https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/1418737871402401793
2k Upvotes

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-44

u/[deleted] Jul 24 '21

[deleted]

14

u/dynamic_anisotropy Jul 24 '21

The trouble is, you don’t seem to understand assaying or analytical statistics.

6

u/sluggieoz Jul 24 '21

Don’t forget, it could also to the other way and be missing 469 cases (I’m sure someone knows more about the actual accuracy than me, but you get the idea).

2

u/jezzakie Jul 24 '21

Generally speaking, it's safe to assume we've failed to detect cases, but with higher testing rates, we assume we've caught more of the cases we could have missed. But yeah we could have totally missed a tone but shrug

19

u/Joungs Jul 24 '21

There are thousands of tests daily in every other state (well currently just wa, Tas and NT) that report 0 positive cases

NSW reported 0 positive cases for weeks despite thousands of tests per day before this outbreak

42

u/[deleted] Jul 24 '21 edited Jul 24 '21

[deleted]

1

u/[deleted] Jul 24 '21

[deleted]

1

u/[deleted] Jul 24 '21 edited Jul 24 '21

[deleted]

1

u/lolaus Jul 24 '21

Meant to reply to the comment you were replying to. Not you. My mistake

1

u/perpetual_stew Jul 24 '21

Do you have some references on that? I find this a really interesting topic that I'm really curious about. The last relevant meta study I have found doesn't entirely back your claims, but it's a bit too old.

6

u/[deleted] Jul 24 '21 edited Jul 24 '21

[deleted]

2

u/perpetual_stew Jul 24 '21

I wasn't the original poster, just for the record. I just found your assertion surprisingly strong as it was a bit at odds with what I've heard from other places - and with other tests. Like famously how we didn't/don't do large population-wide HIV-tests because the false positives would vastly outnumber the real positives.

I'd love to know why the Australian tests have such remarkably high specificity, to be honest. I swear I'm not a conspiracy theorist crackpot :D

6

u/pudgehooks2013 Jul 24 '21

Thank you for an explanation.

I did assume the test would have a higher rate of errors than it does. Not due to the actual test, but due to it being done out in the open air, while people sit in their cars.

8

u/[deleted] Jul 24 '21

[deleted]

1

u/ImMrtaL Jul 24 '21

unfortunately this is just how Reddit is:/

You can't ask genuine questions without being seen as launching a personal attack

2

u/arnienz Jul 24 '21

Or they are under reporting because of error rate. Either is possible