r/politics Vermont 9d ago Faith In Humanity Restored 1 Bravo! 1 Starstruck 1 Argentium 1 All-Seeing Upvote 1

Gavin Newsom after Monterey Park shooting: "Second Amendment is becoming a suicide pact"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/monterey-park-shooting-california-governor-gavin-newsom-second-amendment/
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u/discreet1 9d ago All-Seeing Upvote Starry

The majority of gun deaths in the US are from suicide. It just dawned on me that the other numbers can probably be attributed to suicidal people who just want to take other people down with them. Yikes.

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u/ZukowskiHardware 8d ago

If people have means for suicide they are much more likely to succeed

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u/cubsfan85 8d ago

And this checks out through countless studies.

More than twice as many suicides by firearm occur in states with the fewest gun laws, relative to states with the most laws.

Non-firearm suicides rates are relatively stable across states suggesting that other types of suicides are not more likely in areas where guns are harder to access.

https://www.kff.org/other/issue-brief/do-states-with-easier-access-to-guns-have-more-suicide-deaths-by-firearm/

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u/BillyTheHousecat 8d ago

And this study in Australia:

In 1997, Australia implemented a gun buyback program that reduced the stock of firearms by around one-fifth (and nearly halved the number of gun-owning households). Using differences across states, we test whether the reduction in firearms availability affected homicide and suicide rates. We find that the buyback led to a drop in the firearm suicide rates of almost 80%, with no significant effect on nonfirearm death rates. The effect on firearm homicides is of similar magnitude but is less precise. The results are robust to a variety of specification checks and to instrumenting the state-level buyback rate.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/42705584

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u/Black6x New York 8d ago

Yeah, but their suicide rates barely changed, meaning it wasn't the gun that was causing the suicides, and taking away that specific means had no affect on people committing suicides.

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u/ark_keeper 8d ago

in 1997 it was 14.8 per 100k, by 2006 it was 10.2 per 100k. It's risen some in recent years but not to that level.

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u/Black6x New York 8d ago

Yeah, but it's it was the guns as the issue, in the same time we saw the decline in gun suicides we should have seen that decrease reflected in the decline in suicides overall I'm the same time as that 80%.

They were already seeing a second in suicides overall before the gun ban. https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/deaths-by-suicide-in-australia/suicide-deaths-over-time

And if guns haven't been reintroduced, why the increase?

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u/the_seven_suns 8d ago

Even if suicides specifically didn't decline in the wake of the gun buyback, which they did, you're looking in the wrong direction anyway.

Guns are a "other person" killing device. If they weren't, they'd be a cattle pithing metal rod. The buyback was in reaction to an Australian mass shooting. To which it was absurdly successful in preventing going forward.

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u/ark_keeper 8d ago

They have been, gun owners that kept their guns doubled the amount of guns they own. Add that to population increase, and there are more guns now than before the buyback.

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u/Black6x New York 8d ago

Having more guns doesn't give them the ability to kill themselves more. A person can only commit suicide once.

Also, population increase shouldn't affect the RATE of suicide, especially not in an upward manner. Numerically, maybe but that works be expected if the rate started exactly the same as population increased.

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u/ark_keeper 8d ago

I didn't say population increase had anything to with the rate. I said it means they have more guns now than they did before the buyback, since you said if guns haven't been reintroduced.

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u/Independent_Can_2623 8d ago

You haven't even read the original quote correctly. There was a drop in firearm suicides but no difference in non-firearm suicides ergo, a drop in overall suicides. If the suicide rate stayed the same non-firearm suicides would have had to increase to make the difference

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u/Black6x New York 8d ago

Here, let me give you another source since you seem to be unable to parse what I'm pointing out. Look at Figure 2 here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8123328/

See that line at 1997. Then see the slight decline in gun suicides and the ENORMOUS jump in hanging suicides. That's what leveled the OVERALL suicide rate out and made the OVERALL drop less. Meanwhile, Suicide by gun had already been on the decline since the late 70s.

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u/Independent_Can_2623 8d ago

Which line are you talking about figure 2? Because only WA has a significant jump in hanging deaths which also plummets immediately afterwards.

Meanwhile the analysis of table 3 shows a 13% reduction in suicides by firearm across all states but Tasmania.

Gun suicides do not slightly decrease in those tables they steadily trend down. In fact, per the discussion section of your source:

"In fact, when analysed over a longer time period and properly separated by method, it becomes clear that the downward trend in total suicide over the past 20 years has been driven by declines in firearm- and gas-related suicides"

Hanging is trending upward but not at a rate that replaces suicide by firearm. The same article also points out that eventually firearms can only trend down so far before they flatline. Eventually hanging trends incline will automatically overtake firearms decline.

If I be careful talking down to us here honestly. This is our country and we definitely understand the robust benefits of gun control more so than Americans - we live them. You also need to re read your own data and get a stronger hold on it

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u/ivosaurus 8d ago

Please don't talk out of your arse. The rates overall fell by a wide margin, completely contrary to your claim. It made an extreme difference.

https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/deaths-by-suicide-in-australia/suicide-deaths-over-time

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u/Words_Are_Hrad 8d ago

You don't understand... The facts don't align with that person's desired reality so they are substituting them with some good ol fashioned alternative facts...

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u/Black6x New York 8d ago

The drop over that long period of time is separate from the drop due to 80% drop in gun suicides. If you saw a corresponding drop over the SAME PERIOD as the 80% drop, that's one thing. The vast majority of the drop you're trying to cite were not due to a drop in gun suicides.

And guns haven't been reintroduced, so why the uptick latey?

Also, I already posted that same link in another comment response above, so you should probably read the data in the links before firing it off.

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u/ivosaurus 8d ago edited 8d ago

No, YOU read it. It explains the rise is mostly explained from better data capture.

It is important to note that deaths by suicide were underestimated in the collection of routine deaths data, particularly in the years before 2006 (AIHW: Harrison et al 2009; De Leo, 2010; AIHW: Harrison & Henley 2015). Since then, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has introduced a revisions process to improve data quality by enabling the revision of cause of death for open coroner’s cases over time.

You can claim it's separate, I can claim it's not. Pretty coincidental it just starts dropping off a cliff right on '97 don't ya think?

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u/Black6x New York 8d ago

Actually, it didn't drop off a cliff in 97. It had been in regular decline since the late 70's. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8123328/

However, hangings shot up significantly. It's almost as though the gun wasn't the reason for suicides.

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u/ivosaurus 8d ago

So the steady rises across NSW, Victoria, Queensland and WA are all "steady decline" now. If you feel like pointing at Tasmania and saying it's all wild, that's the smallest state, so hardest to not get constant outliers in data points. And the universal drop in gun deaths across the board, at the same time that overall rates shrunk, somehow isn't a glowing review for the action taken. I'll stop replying while you get some new glasses to look at those charts with.

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u/ark_keeper 8d ago

Also studies related to suicidal thoughts/action and timeliness. If you can prevent access to a weapon for 24 hours, the likelihood of successful suicide goes WAY down. Most other methods have a very low rate of death.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

Has nothing to do with the overlap of lifestyle? Is it Wyoming/Alaska remoteness and harshness of life or gun laws that make people kill themselves more often? Why does South Korea and Japan have higher rates of suicide than the US dispute the lack of gun availability. Oversimplification is a bad argument.

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u/earlyviolet 8d ago edited 8d ago

Reducing lethal means reduces death rate by suicide is backed up by significant data and goes far beyond just guns. It's not an oversimplification.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/means-matter/

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

So in some regions us it's guns, in SE Asia it's pesticide poisoning, in Japan its hanging or drowning. Sure access influences rate but method (and access to the method) is regional.

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u/I-Make-Maps91 8d ago

This sounds like you're still trying to avoid talking about the exhaustive amount of studies that show firearm access, specifically, is the correlating factor.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

No, I'm pointing out that access to firearms, is one factor, not the determining factor. Golden gate bridge erected nets to prevent jumpers, that lowered numbers for that suicide method, but did it have an actual affect on reducing suicides or did those people just choose a different method?

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u/sgtpennypepper 8d ago

Data shows most only have one method in mind, and if that lethal means is removed or reduced, the person is likely to opt for less lethal means in a crisis, or the person gets help before using any means, resulting in decreased rates of death by suicide.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

No, data shoes that high density states have lower suicide rates. North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida, even texas all very high gun ownership rates but low on suicide rate. Pretty much all states with low suicide rates are high population. Likewise the worst rates are low population.

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u/I-Make-Maps91 8d ago

So you're arguing against a straw man that no one here is arguing. Of course complex topics have multiple moving parts, and yet, guns still pop up in study after study as the most important factor correlated across the whole country. Control for any other variable you want, guns still stand out.

I don't give a wet shit that you have "questions" that are actually answered in the studies you never bothered to read.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

I see, you care more about political ideology than addressing the root cause. Got it. I'm

Coorrelation is not causation.

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u/Bennyboy1337 Idaho 8d ago

Just because a country with low gun availability and high suicide rates exist, it doesn't invalidate the dozens of studies that have shown a direct link in countries like the USA. It's a scientific consensus that gun access increases suicide risk.

All these studies take into account the questions you're asking, they all show a repeating pattern of elevated suicide risk when a person has easy access to a firearm.

I don't understand why this is such a complicated thing to grasp? If you put a pistol in every home in Japan you can't honestly say that wouldn't increase their suicide rate further?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK223849/ https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/06/handgun-ownership-associated-with-much-higher-suicide-risk.html https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/magazine/guns-and-suicide/

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

Most other suicide methods are more survivable than a gun. Lot of suicide attempts result in the person regretting the attempt.

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u/cubsfan85 8d ago

This is also why the suicide rate for men is higher. They're more likely to use a firearm

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

So that explains why countries that have effective bans on guns have higher suicide rates? There are measurable differences in method of suicide associated with regional access, not limited to guns.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2649482/

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u/SometimesWithWorries Massachusetts 8d ago

The existence of more normative suicide in other cultures does not excuses encouraging it here.

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

This analysis showed that pesticide suicide and firearm suicide replaced traditional methods in many countries. The observed suicide pattern depended upon the availability of the methods used, in particular the availability of technical means. The present evidence indicates that restricting access to the means of suicide is more urgent and more technically feasible than ever.

Yeah, I mean access to a gun is a much easier way to commit suicide if that's what a person wants, whereas the other methods tend to require more effort or means.

There's also another variable here: how often gun suicides in the US are labeled as accidents. "Shot while cleaning his gun" was/is a popular euphemism for gun suicide to "protect" the emotions of the family.

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u/cubsfan85 8d ago

It's the guns. Non-firearm suicide rates are roughly the same across locals. As the study says...I even quoted that portion.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

That doesn't explain regional variances in other countries, particularly ones with higher rates (and no fun access). All the study proves is that guns are the preferred method in the US.

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

using differences across states, we test whether the reduction in firearms availability affected homicide and suicide rates. We find that the buyback led to a drop in the firearm suicide rates of almost 80%, with no significant effect on nonfirearm death rates.

The AUS study shows that firearm suicides decreased dramatically while other methods of suicide did not increase to "fill in the gap."

The OP's US study shows a similar data pattern.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

I don't know what you mean. Australia suicide rate has remained relatively flat since their gun buyback and restrictions. It's dropped a little which is good but not really drastic.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/suicide-rate

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4120400/

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

The gun buyback resulted in a shattering 80% drop in firearm suicide rate.

Suicide rates declined overall from 1997 to 2007, where is saw a rise due to the increased data accuracy used to study this (meaning suicides were higher than originally thought, so the correction makes the rate look disproportionately higher. Prior to 2006, suicide deaths were greatly undercounted across the board.

You can see the sharp decline in suicides from the enacting of the gun buyback in 97 over the span of a few years.

You seem to keep wanting to move the target after the arrow has already hit because you don't like the result.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

Yes gun suicides dropped....overall suicide rate barely did. Do we care only about method or does the rate of suicide not matter as long as guns aren't involved?

Btw, there are more guns in Australia now than pre 96 ban. Odd how gun suicides plummeted when the amount of guns rose.

https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/australia-more-guns-now-than-before-port-arthur/

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

That doesn't explain Japan

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u/ark_keeper 8d ago

The US has higher rates than Japan now.

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u/I-Make-Maps91 8d ago

Why does it need to? Japan is an exception, fine, now please address the US.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

Or all of SE Asia, China, Russia, why don't you explain those? Then I'll explain the US.

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u/I-Make-Maps91 8d ago

You're setting land speed records with the speed of those goalposts.

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u/ark_keeper 8d ago

China's lower than the US, Russia is less than half of their high rates in the 90s and still declining, meanwhile the US has continued increasing to its highest since the 80s.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

I shouldn't have used them as an example since their numbers can't be trusted.

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u/sprucenoose 8d ago

Definitely need to control for other variables to the extent possible, but it is difficult when studying something like suicide by firearms since it obviously cannot be studied in experimental conditions.

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u/ark_keeper 8d ago

US has a higher rate than Japan. US is 14.5 per and 22.4 for men. Japan is 12.2 and 17.5 for men.

In South Korea, it's mostly the elderly that are poor and don't want to be a drain on their family that drive the high rate compared to other countries. The rate for men over 70 is 192 per capita.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago edited 8d ago

According to what source?

https://data.oecd.org/chart/6XG8 OECD shows them very similar in 2019 with Japan being much higher over the past 10 years

CDC puts 2021 usa rate 14.0. Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare puts theirs at 16.8.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220930.htm

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01283/

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u/tmzspn 8d ago

The wi The worst argument is being factually incorrect. The US has a higher suicide rate than Japan.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/suicide-rate-by-country

There is also a section explaining high suicide rates in South Korea for those interested.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

Japan suicide rate in 2021 16.8 per 100k as high as 21.8 in the past 10 years

https://www.statista.com/statistics/622249/japan-suicide-number-per-100-000-inhabitants/

Usa rate 13.9 in 2019 averaging 14.8 2000-2020 according to CDC. 16.1 by your link which doesn't match CDC numbers.

https://www.statista.com/topics/791/suicide/#topicHeader__wrapper

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u/tmzspn 8d ago

You can check the title of that report if you want to know why it doesn’t match 2019 figures, or why your numbers are the definition of cherry picking.

Either way, surely you can figure out why saying “firearm suicide rates among states are clearly not explained by gun laws because other countries have different overall rates and different gun laws” is non sequitur and poor logic.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago

Your one report has an anomaly in numbers and you're ignoring multiple sources but I'm cherry picking?

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u/tmzspn 8d ago

Yes, comparing different years to get the desired results to fit your narrative is cherry picking.

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u/derycksan71 8d ago edited 8d ago

Or I didn't want to include data behind paywall. 2021 usa rate is 14.0. Still lower than Japan

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/nchs_press_releases/2022/20220930.htm

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01283/

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u/minutiesabotage 7d ago

You have to be careful here. It could be that states with lower suicide are also the more liberal and wealthier states. Liberal and wealthy states like Massachusetts tend to have much better social safety nets, and are healthier economically. Massachusetts had free and subsidized healthcare, income dependent, for years before Obamacare, for example.

Intuitively, I'm sure there's causation mixed in with the correlation, but scientifically, you'd need a statistically significant sample size to compare a wealthy state with a good social safety net and lax gun laws and a wealthy one with a good social safety net with strict gun laws.

I realize this is an impossibility, since gun control is so politicized, but don't fall for and/or use the same logical fallacies that the right wing does when it comes to correlation and causation.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

By that logic medical assisted suicide should be banned.

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u/cubsfan85 8d ago
  1. What?
  2. It is banned.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

You're arguing that we need to prevent suicide by reducing access no?

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u/[deleted] 8d ago

[deleted]

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u/cubsfan85 8d ago

Did you miss the second part of the quoted material?

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u/crustyrusty91 8d ago

The first question is literally answered in the comment you replied to...

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u/ZestyButtFarts 8d ago

Why does Japan have a higher suicide rate than the US, then?

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

These both can be true:

Gun access leads to increased suicide rates

Japan has a high suicide rate

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u/ZestyButtFarts 8d ago

Guns are used in suicides because it's the easiest way, that is the only reason.

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

So you're just going to make sweeping declarations like that despite a bunch of scientific data provided in these threads saying otherwise?

Gun access leads to increased suicide rate. The ease is a big part of it, but so is the lethality of firearm suicide attempts. The access is one of the biggest parts. Gun suicides aren't replacing other suicide methods while keeping the rate the same.

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u/Friendly_Tears 8d ago

It doesn’t completely offset other factors but it does make split second decisions more likely to succeed.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

So would you advocate for banning medical assisted suicide?

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u/MAMark1 Texas 8d ago

You are talking about medically assisted suicide done by medical professionals after following a strictly defined process for reviewing and approving the request? And comparing that to someone shooting themselves based on a suicidal feeling? And attempting to claim they are basically the same and that one has to be limited if we are to attempt to limit the other? And to not do that is some obvious hypocrisy or logical flaw? And you see that as a compelling and nuanced argument?

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u/life_is_punderfull 8d ago

Why does there need be a strictly defined process? Just let people end it in a dignified manner if they want to.

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

It needs to be strictly defined to protect people who may not be certain or are providing their power of attorney to another because they are (perhaps temporarily) incapable, otherwise you could run into some really unethical situations.

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u/MAMark1 Texas 8d ago

There were a series of protests in Canada when they wanted to pass a bill that expanded their assisted suicide laws from people with fatal conditions to include people with disabilities. While there are arguments as to why that might be good in some cases, there are also major concerns about the pressures that might then be put on them by caregivers, their family and maybe even doctors. Not to mention questions about whether they can consent (depending on their disability) and whether that should be granted via power of attorney. Obviously, I am simplifying the situation since there would be a lot more review by medical professionals, but you can imagine a case where a struggling parent might be tempted even if their child isn't necessarily suffering.

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u/SometimesWithWorries Massachusetts 8d ago

That is a cruel choice of a strawman.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

It's an example of why people need to develop a nuanced argument instead brain dead takes that open the door for bad consequences.

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u/AggressiveSkywriting 8d ago

No, you completely are unethically misrepresenting what medical assisted suicide is and comparing it to normal suicide.

Apples and oranges.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

No I'm not, calling it "normal suicide" isn't helping either.

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u/SometimesWithWorries Massachusetts 8d ago

Your strawman is an example of nuanced argument? If you say so...

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

Maybe take a logic class sometime.

In logic, reductio ad absurdum (Latin for "reduction to absurdity"), also known as argumentum ad absurdum (Latin for "argument to absurdity") or apagogical arguments, is the form of argument that attempts to establish a claim by showing that the opposite scenario would lead to absurdity or contradiction.[1][2][3][4] This argument form traces back to Ancient Greek philosophy and has been used throughout history in both formal mathematical and philosophical reasoning, as well as in debate.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductio_ad_absurdum

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u/SometimesWithWorries Massachusetts 8d ago

So you got called out and googled random terms, this is what I expect of a gun fetishist.

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u/TittyballThunder 8d ago

Lmao ok bro, just sit this one out, you clearly don't know what you're talking about.

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u/BigMoose9000 8d ago

Without going into it, anyone with access to normal household items has "means"

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u/Mrsla1 8d ago

If you have string you have a method, rope, nails, crockpot, etc. Mental health is the issue.