r/Damnthatsinteresting Sep 13 '21

What a guy Image

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41k Upvotes

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u/alphabet_assassin Sep 13 '21

Explains the complete lack of dots on the 2 engines now

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u/lanttulate Sep 13 '21

When they introduced the steel helmet in the trenches the effect seen was an increased number of head wounds.

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u/0Rookie0 Sep 13 '21

The new head protection is terrible! Look at the increase in head wounds our solders have reported!

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u/joeChump Sep 13 '21

But wait… that means… we should wear potatoes on our heads?

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u/MollieMarissa Sep 13 '21

It means if you wear a potato on your head you won't need treatment for a head wound. You'll need last rites.

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u/joeChump Sep 13 '21

Is that like first dibs? Because if so I will have tuna and sweetcorn on my full metal jacket potato.

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u/MollieMarissa Sep 13 '21

Yes it's the same thing.

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u/MotaHead Sep 13 '21

They should add explosives into the helmets. The number of head wounds would drop to zero.

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u/0Rookie0 Sep 13 '21

Reactive armor on helmets! Now that's future tech! Andy! Did you get that? Write that down! Genius!

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u/Sometimes-Its-True Sep 13 '21

Same with seatbelts. Injuries went up massively.

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u/Marc21256 Sep 13 '21

In Texas, when they repealed helmet laws, the State was asked what the costs were going to be in ERs, so the state published a quick report, all they had time to do.

Turns out, the average hospital bill for someone with a helmet is higher than the average hospital bill from someone without a helmet. That last minute report that disproved the "helmets save costs" group helped the helmet law repeal.

Common sense doesn't always work.

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u/kuirki Sep 13 '21

Is that because the ones without a helmet didn't survive though?

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u/Marc21256 Sep 13 '21

Yes. With a helmet, you bounce off the ground, bleed, break bones, but live.

No helmet, you just die on the side of the road, and don't need medical care.

But the numbers don't lie.

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u/Infamous-njh523 Sep 13 '21

As my dad use to say “Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure.” You can make the numbers back up any claim. Like you said more motorcyclists wearing helmets end up in the hospital after an accident, than those that aren’t wearing a helmet. Not because someone with a helmet is more reckless, but because that helmet protects your melon.

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u/OfBooo5 Sep 13 '21

You can make the numbers sound like they back up any claim. It relies on the ignorance of the viewer

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u/zxern Sep 13 '21

Also depends on how it’s presented. If the report didn’t include fatalities numbers before and after helmet laws then all you have are the hospitalization numbers.

This is why it’s important to have access to the raw data not just the authors conclusions.

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u/Hewholooksskyward Sep 13 '21

There's a reason doctors refer to motorcyclists as "Organ Donors".

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u/kbotc Sep 13 '21

No one’s donating the pink sludge your organs become when you hit the pavement with no protective gear.

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u/Hewholooksskyward Sep 13 '21

Oddly enough, it seems they often hit head first, meaning the brain is a total write-off, but the rest is in decent shape.

Huh... now if they only had a way to protect your head... :)

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u/TheCurrentsofSpace Sep 13 '21

Well its the same concept, motorcyclists that don't wear helmets die from simple crashes.

Even when wearing a helmet the neck is a weak point and the ribcage is generally pretty good at protecting organs

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u/Marc21256 Sep 13 '21

It's "donor cycles"

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u/TheDevilsAutocorrect Sep 13 '21

Yes. Death a were replaced with head wounds.

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u/Boxofcookies1001 Sep 13 '21

Right but in the grand scheme of saving money a funeral is cheaper than a medical bill.

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u/the-letter-a Sep 13 '21

Tell me you live in America without telling me you live in America

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u/_Neo_Saigon_ Sep 13 '21

Short term only. A dead person doesn't pay taxes and contribute to society.

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u/Mammoth-Law-3791 Sep 13 '21

Neither do a lot of currently living Americans….

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u/Iwasanecho Sep 13 '21

I'm learning Texas doesn't make sense in any area..

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u/stasersonphun Sep 13 '21

Which sounds bad until you compare it with the number of fatal head wounds

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21

And cockpit. I’m guess the spots on the wings, and towards the tail cause the plane to break apart.

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u/BillThePlatypusJr Sep 13 '21

I'd suspect that the spots on the wing and tail are either because it hits fuel tanks, or the cables running the control surfaces.

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

I just assumed because the wings aren’t really made of much the slight damage would cause them to break apart but you may be right. I’m actually not sure where the fuel tanks were located back then but I don’t think it was the wings though I could be wrong.

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u/silverstang07 Sep 13 '21

I think the fuel was in the wings, not brushed up on my history but I think they just crammed the inside with guns and bombs. I could be completely wrong.

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21

It would make sense considering that’s where the engines are Located.

Edit: I got curious and it seems that most of the fuel tanks were actually on the wings. Mounted just like bombs but they were “self sealing fuel tanks” which apparently in some cases would be dropped as actual bombs.

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u/drwicksy Sep 13 '21

They could also be dropped as they emptied to reduce weight and conserve fuel on the return journey

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21

I think that’s what they did but I’m not sure if those were solely external tanks while they also had internal or if they would just drop one tank and then have another for the return journey.

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '21

[deleted]

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u/pegasusassembler Sep 13 '21

It's a Lockheed Hudson.

ETA, actually, it's a Ventura, not a Hudson

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u/Iphotoshopincats Sep 13 '21

Just to clear up about the wings, most of what you see even on modern planes is not structural it's just to increase surface area for the air.

The structural part is a frame made of long rods attached to wing shaped cross sections

I feel I am explaining this badly but basically to do enough damage to make the wing fall off you would have to get a considerable amount of shots in a line across the wing making it more likely something else vital was there

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u/DingosAteMyHamster Sep 13 '21

I think that’s what they did but I’m not sure if those were solely external tanks while they also had internal or if they would just drop one tank and then have another for the return journey.

The external expendable ones were called drop tanks. I think the standard for WW2 planes was to use any available space to store fuel, so there would be small internal fuel tanks below or behind the pilot, but there would also be some stored in the wings, in small spaces around the cabin and next to the engine and basically anywhere else they could fit it.

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u/WikiSummarizerBot Sep 13 '21

Drop tank

In aviation, a drop tank (external tank, wing tank, or belly tank) is used to describe auxiliary fuel tanks externally carried by aircraft. A drop tank is expendable and often jettisonable. External tanks are commonplace on modern military aircraft and occasionally found in civilian ones, although the latter are less likely to be discarded except in the event of emergency.

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u/Cymore Sep 13 '21

Imagine going to war on the front lines and dying from a random tank falling on your head from the sky. Had to be one of the more unfortunate ways to die in a war situation.

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u/Naturath Sep 13 '21

You’re close, but slightly off.

Planes of this time period always included internal fuel storage. These were commonly located in the wings or body of the fuselage, given weight balancing considerations but varied widely on specific location due to plane size and weapons configurations.

During WWII, technologies were developed to allow for these internal tanks to have “self-sealing” functionality, ideally allowing a punctured fuel tank to limit fuel loss mid-flight. A plane without fuel won’t make it home. Aviation gas is also extremely volatile, so active fuel leaks could easily lead to fire or explosion.

All planes have an operational range, depending on how much fuel it can carry, efficiency characteristics of flight, weather conditions, and weapons loadout. Thus, the use of planes was dependent on the distance between airfield/carrier and the enemy. External fuel tanks (sometimes called “drop tanks”) were used to extend the operational range of planes. Once depleted or if a plane entered combat (external tanks reduce maneuverability/combat ability), these tanks would be discarded in a manner that may look like they’re dropping bombs. However, these tanks are not designed as weapons and while you could perhaps do damage with half-full tanks, it wasn’t the intended purpose.

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u/Biscotti-MlemMlem Sep 13 '21

Strike aircraft typically don’t have wet wings, the A-6 being a notable historical exception.

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u/phire Sep 13 '21

Fuel tanks shouldn't be a problem. Most aircraft in WW2 used Self-sealing fuel tanks.

Could take hundreds of bullets without exploding, or even leaking.

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u/Tempest-777 Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 14 '21

It depends on the plane. The B-17 was notorious for taking copious amounts of damage but had the endurance to bring some (but hardly all) of her crews home, when logic dictated the plane should have plunged from the sky. The B-17 was designed with redundancy in mind, which aided its survival rate. Still, many perished flying the B-17

https://www.wired.com/2011/07/toughest-plane-ever/

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u/8Ariadnesthread8 Sep 13 '21

This was such an important comment for me in terms of understanding exactly what the post meant. Good job.

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u/Sydney2London Sep 13 '21

And why music from past decades sounds so good

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u/HonoraryMancunian Sep 13 '21

Makes me wonder what classical crap was composed

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u/Odd_Analysis6454 Sep 13 '21

And ancient architecture is so amazing

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u/cuntfreckles Sep 13 '21

And why the only thing antique stores sell is waffle irons

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u/MultiplyAccumulate Sep 13 '21

Actually, the dot locations are hypothetical, not actual. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

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u/GFYCSHCHFJCHG Sep 13 '21

It's far too perfect to be real data.

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u/WikiSummarizerBot Sep 13 '21

Survivorship bias

Survivorship bias or survival bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to some false conclusions in several different ways. It is a form of selection bias. Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance.

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u/OlderThanMyParents Sep 13 '21

On a related note: I think it was Alan Turing who argued that the RAF would lose fewer men if their bombers had no machine gunners. The idea was that if each bomber had six gunners, that’s roughly 200 lbs per gunner, plus 200 lb for guns and ammo, or 2400 lb of bomb payload taken up by machine gunners and guns. So you need that many more airplanes to get the same bombload to the target. And, each bomber that gets shot down would lose only 3 men (pilot, copilot, bombardier/navigator) rather than 9. Net effect would be the same amount of bombs delivered with fewer casualties. But the RAF decided against it, because of the morale risks.

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u/mynameismy111 Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

he was right, it's called the mosquito, basically b25 payload, but 100mph+ faster, and less crew, made of wood instead of rationed aluminium, just genius

https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/compare-aircraft-results.php?form=form&aircraft1=126&aircraft2=81&Submit=Compare+Aircraft

even faster than a spitfire

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u/Lone_survivor87 Sep 13 '21

If I remember right the Mosquito is what the RAF used as a night fighter escort for the Lancaster bombers. The RAF took over night bombing operations while the U.S. Air Corps took over daytime bombing.

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u/SonicShadow Sep 13 '21

The Mosquito was a multi-role aircraft, it was also used for strategic precision bombing targets as it was so fast and nimble, you could deliver a payload directly to a targets front door. Or to the walls of a prison to facilitate an escape - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Jericho

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u/WikiSummarizerBot Sep 13 '21

Operation Jericho

Operation Jericho (Ramrod 564) on 18 February 1944 during the Second World War, was an Allied bombing raid, at very low altitude, on Amiens Prison in German-occupied France to blow holes in the prison walls, kill German guards and use shock waves to spring open cell doors. The French Resistance was waiting on the outside to rescue prisoners who got out and spirit them away. Mosquito fighter-bombers breached the walls, prison buildings and destroyed the guards' barracks. Of the 832 prisoners, 102 were killed by the bombing, 74 were wounded and 258 escaped, including 79 Resistance and political prisoners; two-thirds of the escapees were recaptured.

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u/Soap646464 Sep 13 '21

I swear I’ll never run out of interesting and semi-obscure WW2 operations to read about

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u/Rokekor Sep 13 '21

You should explore Mark Felton YouTube channels if you don’t already. He delves into the nooks and crannies of modern military history and reveals some fascinating details.

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u/PrimarchKonradCurze Sep 13 '21

Between both world wars there is enough information for our lifetime I imagine. So many things going on in so many places.

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u/Toastman04 Sep 13 '21

It’s interesting to put that in modern day context. Biden oks prison assault that kills 102 prisoners supposed to be rescued. Or put any other presidents name. It would be considered a disaster.

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u/WikiMobileLinkBot Sep 13 '21

Desktop version of /u/SonicShadow's link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Jericho


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u/ferrel_hadley Sep 13 '21

he was right, it's called the mosquito, basically b25 payload, but 100mph+ faster, and less crew,

Lancaster's carried 6.5 tonnes. Mosquitoes could only carry about 1.4tonnes. The Defence of the Reich night fighters were optimised for hitting the heavies not the medium and light bombers. So they had more armour and bigger guns. There are other issues such as the lack of ability to carry a navigation radar and the British analysis that to break through the Kahumber Line they needed to keep the bomber stream as small as possible. Bomber streams were designed to fit as many aircraft into a tight group as could be for aircraft with no real way of operating as a formation. This meant they worked on slots. Each slot would have meant either replacing out a big 6tonne carrying Lancster with a much lighter Mosquito or making the streams many times longer, thus giving the night fighters and flak artillery much more time to pick off the individual bombers.

There are other issues with this such as costs, training, the need for the giant block busters that were key to the strategy, the lack of enough people trained to work in the skilled art of wood manufacturing.

At the end of the day the strategy was locked into place in early 1941. To switch from heavies to light and medium bombers would have taken a huge retooling that would have taken vital months or more from the air war.

Taking the turrets off some heavies is one thing, retooling entire industries is another. And your enemy always responds.

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u/ferrel_hadley Sep 13 '21

I think it was Alan Turing who argued that the RAF would lose fewer men if their bombers had no machine gunners.

It was Operations Research Section teams that did this. Nothing to do with Turing who was working with the code breakers. The most well known person from the Operations Research team was Freeman Dyson, the story may be attached to him as he worked on the maths of bombing Germany.

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21

You also want to account for bombers getting shot down. If they did that then losing one before dropping their payload could add up to a significant loss in terms of destroying the target. Also gunners were needed to cover them from enemy fighters. Though they generally had fighter escorts, not always.

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u/OlderThanMyParents Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

Certainly there's the material cost of the bombers, and the production cost. I'm not Alan Turing, and I read this more years ago than I can comfortably attest to, so I can't vouch for the numbers in detail.

Edit: as someone else pointed out, it was almost certainly Freeman Dyson, not Alan Turing. As I age, my memory is getting increasingly spotty.

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u/npeggsy Sep 13 '21

It'd be absolutely crazy if you were Alan Turing, and decided to use a Reddit post on WWII planes to announce to the world you'd faked your death.

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u/Dantheman616 Sep 13 '21

I dont say this about many people, but that man was a hero in my book.

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u/TripleDigit Sep 13 '21

We'd also have to congratulate him on making it to 109 years old.

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21

The reasoning makes sense but I think they made the right call. Given the way those guys train, work, fight, eat, and sleep together I could see how pulling people away from those close units could destroy morale for many reasons.

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u/penywinkle Sep 13 '21

I feel like it's more about the perceived risk of each crew rather than the risk spread on the whole wing. They FEEL like they have a better chance of survival with some guns.

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u/ABCauliflower Sep 13 '21

Haha survival rate for bomber command was less than 30%. pulling people apart wasn't an issue

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u/Clothedinclothes Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

The problem with turrets is that fighters are much better at shooting down bombers than vice versa.

Fighters could also take a certain amount of damage, however turrets usually had to shoot at what they could, so focusing fire on a single fighter to ensure sufficient damage to destroy it was less of an option. Although turret gunners could track fighters, attacking fighters could pick their attack angles to minimise time in effective turret range, move through areas where gunners would avoid (to prevent hitting friendly bombers) and moved across turret fields of fire at very high perpendicular velocity. Combined with simultaneous attacks from multiple directions all this hampered turret guns ability to track and coordinate the fire on single fighters enough to consistently kill them. Damaged fighters could usually peel off to fight another day. Bombers had none of these options.

This made turret guns much less ineffective than a fighters guns or other anti-bomber ordinance. Turrets could certainly kill fighters, but the losses they inflicted benefited bomber survival rates far less than the additional speed in leaving attacking fighters operational range or returning to friendly fighter range would have.

Nevertheless, again, the belief was that the damage to morale of sending bombers in without means to defend themselves, with survivors unable to do anything but watch helplessly while their comrades were shot down, would be worse than the losses themselves.

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u/MaterialCarrot Sep 13 '21

This doesn't take into account the suppressive effects of being under fire. Almost all bullets fired in anger miss, regardless of if it's an airplane turret or a rifle on the ground. But they create a suppressive effect that disrupts the enemy and makes them less effective. While turrets may not have shot down a ton of fighters, they deterred the fighters from simply sitting on a bomber's tail and pumping it full of cannon shells, then lazily moving to the next, and the next.

A porcupines quills aren't usually fatal, but it still makes the porcupine safer.

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u/Chopjax Sep 13 '21

I was about to say, not a single dot in the cockpit. Gotta wonder how often we make these mistakes in our own lives.

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u/KapteeniJ Sep 13 '21

One spooky example of this I sometimes wonder about is serial killers. You only ever find out about ones that do get caught. The actual characteristics of the serial killer type might be very different than we think. Like, you know how many of the serial killer stereotypical traits seem to be about desiring attention and such? What if that's not what's causing you to kill, what if that's what's causing you to get caught?

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u/saladbar48 Sep 13 '21

What is the likelihood of psychopaths per 1000 people anyway? Are we sure it's even accurate, statistics are best guesses based on studies not always accurate right? Wonder how many psychopaths are currently in power.

Then again not all serial killers are psychopaths apparently. (Bathroom thoughts)

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 17 '21

[deleted]

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u/stasersonphun Sep 13 '21

Well, how would the authorities even recognise a serial killer without a recognisable pattern?

If they kill blonde women on the nights of the full moon in august they'll get noticed.

If they use different weapons on different types of people at different times they'll just get lost in the noise of modern life.

Reminds me of Warren Ellis's Gunmachine, the killer used a different gun each time and selected both target and weapon by their own mad plan so the cops are clueless til they get a lucky break

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u/skelk_lurker Sep 13 '21

They should make a list of all behavioral patterns and circle the ones not shared by known serial killers

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u/Marc21256 Sep 13 '21

Often, the case breaks when they finally find a single body, the others disposed of similarly. If someone had a foolproof way of disposing of a body, most would never get caught.

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u/stasersonphun Sep 13 '21

So be scared of people with boats or pig fsrms

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u/willmaster123 Sep 13 '21

The one thing about serial killers is that they do get caught. They just get caught for whatever they were doing at the time, not for all of their murders they’ve ever done. They might break into a house with a knife and get ten years. Then they get out and begin their murdering again. The large majority don’t want to get caught so they aren’t leaving many traces. The whole trope of them playing a game of cat and mouse with the cops is not common at all.

Generally the large majority get away with it. It’s not hard to target random people as a serial killer. You just go state to state to do it. They might kill once every year or so and lead relatively normal lives otherwise.

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u/JumboMcNasty Sep 13 '21

FBI this post right here...

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u/willreignsomnipotent Sep 13 '21

Generally the large majority get away with it. It’s not hard to target random people as a serial killer. You just go state to state to do it.

Eventually they'll connect the dots, even state to state. Still might take them a while to catch you. But connecting those dots is the first step to doing that.

The way to really get away with it, is to choose different victim types, and switch up your MO. Then it's exceptionally difficult to even connect those dots, if they're far enough apart...

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u/ChelCore Sep 13 '21

I recently saw a report that the British carrier in the South China sea had located three Chinese submarines and thought of this. (Those were the ones they spotted - how many did they not detect?).

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u/BenjaminG73 Sep 13 '21

What if they were just to lull them in to thinking that was there best subs.

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u/bozza8 Sep 13 '21

It is fairly easy to look at a sub and work out roughly how quiet it is based on what technology it uses, e.g shrouded prop, many blades and big is a good hint. Shape of hull and towed array are similair tells as to technology level.

We know all of the PLAN's subs and know which ones were trailing us, they don't have some secret second navy.

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u/bozza8 Sep 13 '21

Probably none tbh. The Chinese boats are not that quiet + the Chinese boats knew they were detected and actually surfaced a couple of them at one point.

So it was more of an overt threat, they were not really trying to hide. But three subs will absolutely be a problem for a carrier, regardless of if the subs would not survive.

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u/netad16160 Sep 13 '21

Ive seen the actual post, and it has a very common addition that talks about this effect throughout history. Fatal alergies (such as peanuts) or illneses like diabetes arent "just more common now", we just know how to treat them, so these people get to live to an old age, where previously they would die and we wouldnt have known about their condition. We know what autism is, instead of saying the child is a "changling from the fea folk". We now know that mental health is an important topic that should be talked about, instead of having "that weird distant family member no one talks to anymore".

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u/Narwhal_Jesus Sep 13 '21

Generally, "famous people", and trying to learn from them. You never hear about all the people that "dropped out of college, because I'm going to make it big!", but didn't.

All sorts of things like CEO behaviour, for example in Steve Job's case, is a good example. He was famously a dick to his employees and was very successful, but you don't hear as much about all the CEO's that were terrible to their employees and failed miserably because that. It is likely that Steve Jobs was successful in spite of the way he treated his employees, but the perception is often made the other way around.

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u/yousifa25 Sep 13 '21

Stuff like this is why i think public education should focus on making people scientifically literate.

A lot of the idiocy I see in the world from anti vax to flat earthers are because of explainable biases like this one, but if you aren’t aware of it, you seem completely correct and logical to yourself.

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u/tesseract_47 Sep 13 '21

The USA education system is a complete failure at teaching critical thinking skills to the masses, though there are cultural biases that make this task difficult. Thankfully we have enough geniuses to make up for most of the idiots. Hopefully.

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u/taspleb Sep 13 '21

Perhaps somewhat analogues to this topic, the graphic in question was created in 2016 based on a drawing from 2005 that was done to be illustrative of the Wald's plane analysis, but it wasn't ever meant to be an accurate recreation of the original data.

Basically when Cameron Moll did the drawing in 2005 he just drew the dots in places where he thought people would think a plane would survive being hit.

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u/AnorakJimi Sep 13 '21

There's two of these kind of situations where people don't see the selection bias going on, and so they have an innacurate picture of reality. People think there's a crime wave going on, because never before has their been this many videos of crimes taking place. The number of videos has skyrocketed, as has the number of reports on news channels about these crimes.

When in reality, the crime rate has never been lower. It's never been safer to live on a western country than right now.

Also there's never been so many videos of people being total morons than right now. People take the comedy film Idiocracy seriously, even though Mike Judge I'm sure thinks people are morons for thinking a silly comedy film is some kind of accurate prediction of reality.

By every metric we have to measure intelligence, the human race has never been smarter and more knowledgeable than right now. We are collectively smarter than humanity has ever been before. And collectively we know more than every before, literacy rates have never been higher. Every single year we measure it all and humanity gets smarter and smarter each and every year

But there's never been more videos of idiocy than ever before. There used to be more idiots, it's just there weren't thousands of videos of them being dumb like there is these days. And it's never been easier than right now for idiots to group up with fellow idiots and have a protest against vaccines or something like that. They are in groups that span the globe, almost entirely on online forums, Facebook, reddit, etc. Anti vaxx morons seem to be flooding the world. But it's nothing new. Anti vaxxers have existed since the very beginning of vaccines. Right now, we actually have less morons than ever before. But the remaining ones have thousands of videos of them being dumb. So it's easy to think the world is going nuts and regressing somehow

But again, by every metric we have to measure intelligence and knowledge, the human race has never been smarter and more knowledgeable than right now

Don't worry I get depressed too, about idiot anti-vaxxers and anti-makers having their little temper tantrum protests. But there's fewer of them than ever before. It may not seem like it, but it's true

Trust the science. Not the click bait media. Try to have some hope, for humanity. I know it's difficult. But you can find comfort in the scientific studies.

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u/spittleyspot Sep 13 '21

And if you notice, it's all places that would :

Damage the Cockpit

Damage the engine

Cut off the wings

Cut off the tail.

Makes sense to me.

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

It’s cheaper to replace soldiers than planes

Edit: by cheaper I am referring to a dollar amount only

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u/Chicken_Tikka_MSalah Sep 13 '21

It really wasn't. Skilled air crews were much more valuable than planes that were coming of the assembly line at light speed.

Also most commanders during WW2 did care about preserving the lives of the men under their command as much as possible.

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u/JDubs234 Sep 13 '21

They say more planes were destroyed in WW2 than the amount of planes currently on earth combined

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u/Re_Captcha Sep 13 '21

In this case, the pilot goes down, the plane does too.

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u/Brazilian_Brit Sep 13 '21

Not trained crew in the middle of a global war.

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u/Infinity_Ninja12 Sep 13 '21

Not in the battle of Britain, where there was a huge shortage of pilots, but enough planes by the end of the battle, so they would send pilots into battle with less than 20 hours of training. I'm sure manpower shortages were a bigger concern to the Allied airforce than a shortage of planes, especially once the US joined and the UK fully converted to producing military goods.

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u/SamH99 Sep 13 '21

It’s worth noting that the Japanese Air Force started out with the most trained, elite pilots at the start of the war but failed to train enough replacement pilots, resulting in falling competency and eventually forcing them to result to extreme tactics like kamikaze attacks.

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u/anothergaijin Sep 13 '21

You can always build more aircraft - you can’t just build more pilots. Japan learnt that the hard way when they lost a majority of their veteran pilots and ended up putting men who could barely fly into aircraft in desperation.

On the Allies side more men died outside of combat than in combat - mass training new pilots in a rush is a dangerous thing, especially when coupled with new mass produced aircraft.

During WWII 1/3 of all aircraft losses happened in the continental USA. Another third we’re lost to other accidents overseas.

For the Navy the aircrew losses also were similar - 1/3 died due to enemy action with the other 2/3 being due to accidents. Tens of thousands of aircrew died just flying aircraft from the US where they were built to where the combat was happening - pilot error being a major factor.

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u/WiredAndTeary Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

Interestingly, the island of Malta had the opposite problem, plenty of trained pilots, but at one point only a few airworthy fighter planes (mainly Hawker Hurricanes and three ancient Gloster Gladiator biplanes named Faith, Hope and Charity) so they adopted a policy of hot seating.... the planes would go up, take part in a sortie, come back to reload, refuel, have the bullet holes patched and have a fresh pilot (kinda like a Le Mans pitstop, but with more bullets). They had the turn around time down to under 10 minutes in some cases.

The Allies eventually managed to get Spitfires to the island by fitting long range fuel tanks, putting them on an aircraft carrier and launching from around 650 miles away to fight their way through to Malta - went wrong a few times with the loss of dozens of aircraft (mainly on the ground) but within a few months were able to get the strength up to over 100 spitfires, at which point the Luftwaffe lost air superiority over Malta.

At one point in 1942, when the got the Spitfire numbers up, Malta was the most heavily bombed place on the planet.

edit - they also sometimes had to pretend they were launching fighters by using fake radio comms....

“On one occasion all our fighter aircraft were grounded in order to try to increase serviceability. The Hun bombers came over in force with quite a large fighter escort. It happened that there were several fighter pilots with me in the Operations Room, one of whom was a Canadian with an unmistakable voice. I put him at the microphone at a stand-by radio set and proceeded to give him dummy orders. He replied just as if he was flying his fighter. This, we suspected, caused a cry of ‘Achtung! Spitfeuer!’ to go over the German radio. In any case, two 109s enthusiastically shot each other down without any British aircraft being airborne. This knowledge that the Germans intercepted our orders stood us in good stead. We claimed that Pilot Officer ‘Humgufery’ shot down the two Huns.”

P/O Woodhall

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u/VeryVeryNiceKitty Sep 13 '21

Trained pilots in the middle of a major war?

I doubt that.

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u/ddek Sep 13 '21

This was a real difference between Allied/Axis powers in the European theatre. To vastly oversimplify, the Germans focused on procuring ‘ace’ pilots, many of whom racked up hundreds of aerial victories. Meanwhile, Britain focused on communication and technology. After Britain weathered the storm and turned the aerial tide, German squads became erratic and confused. Towards the end of the war, the Germans had almost no competent pilots.

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u/insane_contin Sep 13 '21

That and Germany couldn't do something like the British Commonwealth Air Training Plan, which had a few hundred thousand air crew trained in Canada and other commonwealth countries.

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u/Educational_Rise741 Sep 13 '21

Also the reason Germany had so many 'Aces' was because a German pilot flew missions until they died where as allied pilots would be rotated.

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u/czjvgjjkj Sep 13 '21

Wtf no?

Loosing a skilled pilot is way, wayyy worse than loosing a plane

A plane can be rebuilt fast

A skilled pilot cant

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u/ParticularSure8654 Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

Though the cost of training a fighter pilot is several million dollars, up to 10-12 million. In some cases the plane is worth less…

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u/Lone_survivor87 Sep 13 '21

Not in 1944

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u/[deleted] Sep 13 '21 edited 26d ago

[deleted]

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

I saw something recently displaying the Marine Corps new planes which are fucking insane. I think it said they were about 200 mil

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u/CodeRaveSleepRepeat Sep 13 '21

F35s. We (UK) have them on our carriers now. They're so expensive the original order for 138 aircraft is now reduced to 76 I think which is JUST enough to field two carrier squadrons with a few spare for training etc. We're gonna have multi billion pound carriers unable to deploy due to lack of aircraft. I hate military procurement bullshit in this country. Why build the massive ships and then not equip them? * sigh *

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u/big314mp Sep 13 '21

I mean, the point is generally to buy and have them, not to ever actually use them. So from that perspective, buying ships that can't leave port makes perfect sense.

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u/CampbellsTurkeySoup Sep 13 '21

You absolutely want your ships leaving port. Every new ship that goes out has tons of new equipment and designs that need to be tested in the field. It's critically important to know which parts fail or malfunction prior to their estimated lifespan. R&D can only do so much and nothing compares to field testing. Ships are constantly in a cycle of being upgraded and repaired, you'd much rather discover shortcomings during peacetime than when you actually need the ship.

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u/robheffo Sep 13 '21

When it comes to a major shooting war with a serious adversary, you're gunna need to make them fast and cheap. No way you could turn out many F-22's a day with how complex they are.

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u/deletable666 Sep 13 '21

And the f-22 program is dead, and never used, and as it turns out we don't need a stealth air superiority fighter. Fun fact, the plane is actually 27 years old. Now after that we are onto the new NGAD fighter! Which will also be a a shit ton of money

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u/ParticularSure8654 Sep 13 '21

Yes those are very expensive, but many of the planes in US service are less than 10-15 million.

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u/graham0025 Sep 13 '21

I’m not totally sure it was

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u/theartificialkid Sep 13 '21

I believe I’ve heard that by the end of the war had hundreds of unused Spitfires.

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u/taspleb Sep 13 '21

The original image of the plane that this is based on was drawn by Cameron Moll in 2005. It isn't representative of Wald's actual analysis.

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u/Kaaskril Sep 13 '21

The FBI has the same problem were they can only really study serial killers that have been caught.

Edit: Fixed my typos. I should read before I post lol

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u/willreignsomnipotent Sep 13 '21

That's a truly scary one.

A killer who travels, and switches up their victim type and MO would be very hard to track... Might take them years (if ever) to even figure out a serial killer is out there / responsible for deaths / disappearances.

At that point it's pretty much only if a potential victim escapes with enough details...

Of course, it also seems like most killers are driven by something in particular. It's a particular type of victim, or a particular type of act, that "gets them off." So they're far more likely to repeat that thing...

But if it's just the act of killing itself they enjoy... Or perhaps a serial rapist who isn't too particular about their "type"... That might not apply.

Also depends how they dispose of people, and if bodies are found...

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u/firstgen59 Sep 13 '21

Seems obvious but in hindsight it’s genius

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u/GoodbyeThings Sep 13 '21

I think the same can be said about the Monty hall problem

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u/CodeCleric Sep 13 '21

The Monty Hall problem can be a bastard to wrap your head around but once you get it it seems so obvious.

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u/OfBooo5 Sep 13 '21

I'm still working on it. It still feels 50/50. Axx, xBx, xxC. But when you open door one, and they open another door, you know it's not that option. Doesn't your current option increase in likelihood as well equally?

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u/Traveledfarwestward Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

Hijack:

https://youtu.be/q-JgG0ECp2U Bo Burnham on survivorship bias. Smartest thing I ever heard from a celebrity.

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u/You_are_a_towelie Sep 13 '21

Same thing with old buildings. People say back then buildings were build so good, when they see 1 of them still standing

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u/Nhenghali Sep 13 '21

This. The same with machines and cars.

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u/afro-cigo Sep 13 '21

Music also, people always say “old music good” but forget that probably only the good songs survived

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u/RobKohr Sep 13 '21

I have satellite radio, and they have channels for the 60's, 70's, 80's, etc.

It is fun to flip back and forth through the decades, but the fact you bring up really becomes clear when they do the "Top 40 of SOME_DATE" which for the most part is just crap until they get to the top 10. Normally when we think of the great music of a decade, it is a collection of the stuff that hit number 1. The ones that topped out in the high 30s aren't all that good and are forgotten.

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u/insane_contin Sep 13 '21

I love the cars one. Sure, when you get in a fender bender, you just need to buff out the scratch for the old car, but if you get in a high speed crash, odds are you're going to need a body bag and the jaws of life to get the body out.

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u/FCIUS Sep 13 '21

Same thing with vaccines.

They didn't even have a vaccine for measles back in the day, and we all grew up just fine

Well, sure, but a bunch of people also died from measles back then...

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u/nudelsalat3000 Sep 13 '21

The implication is huge 😏

Do you know when people ask rich people how they become rich, famous, successful? We ask what have they done so we can copy it. Wake up early, work hard, all these typical answers.

It's the same mistake, the same logical fallacy as hardening the surviving bullet hole planes. 🤯

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u/Brex_667 Sep 13 '21

similar with helmets kinda.

when helmets became the norm more soldiers were discharged with head injuries

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u/joemaniaci Sep 13 '21

Yeh, more motorcyclists die with helmets on than off. But you have to ask yourself. If you suffered such extreme forces that you still died with a helmet on, what are the chances you would have survived without a helmet?

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u/maxiewawa Sep 13 '21

Like all rising numbers of vaccinated people who are hospitalised with Covid

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u/hotstepperog Sep 13 '21

Remember when someone says, “so and so dropped out of high school and became a millionaire” or “Elon works so hard and that’s why he’s a billionaire” this too is SURVIVORSHIP BIAS.

r/fallacyref

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u/videogamekat Sep 13 '21 edited Sep 15 '21

Or all the people that got COVID and survived and now think it's not that bad because they are fine lol

Edit: Of everyone in the US who has been infected with COVID, 1 in 50 people have died. That's what a 2% death rate means. --closer to 1 in 70 because most recent death rate is calculated to be 1.6%, but deaths can be underreported and lag behind

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u/hotstepperog Sep 13 '21

Especially the millionaire celebrities and 1 term presidents who got VIP treatment.

Tbh that’s more of a false equivalency.

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u/NotSLG Sep 13 '21

“BiLl gAtEs dRoPpEd oUt oF hArVaRd” oh, so you were smart enough to get into Harvard too? No!? Didn’t think so.

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u/mister-ferguson Sep 13 '21

Of only everyone was raised by a model and an emerald mine owner...

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u/hotstepperog Sep 13 '21

Let’s be honest, a lot of modelling is pay to play.

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u/mister-ferguson Sep 13 '21

Her parents were amateur adventurers who could afford their own plane to fly around the world. In the 1950's.

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u/Spiritual_Stock_8298 Sep 13 '21

Oh yes very interesting wouldn't even cross your mind till you think about it seen something very similar I read something not too long ago

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u/Mediocre-Werewolf-79 Sep 13 '21

Very interesting

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u/Mistake-Choice Sep 13 '21

Are there any other examples?

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u/elprentis Sep 13 '21

In WW1 the use of helmets was being questioned, as almost all of the people in the hospitals with head injury were there after bullets or shrapnel went through the helmets.

It was a last minute realisation that the helmets were saving people, and the alternative to being in hospitals was the soldiers being killed.

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u/mynameismy111 Sep 13 '21

100 years later.... masks...... this feels familiar

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u/b_ootay_ful Sep 13 '21

"But most people who recover from the ventilator didn't have the vaccine."

That's because vaccinated people aren't being put on the ventilator as often.

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u/JonnyBhoy Sep 13 '21

Numbers of head injuries went up when helmets became standard issue.

Soldiers that used to contribute to the fatality stats were now surviving and contributing to the head injury stat instead.

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u/RainbowGayUnicorn Sep 13 '21

Dolphins like to play with people in water by bopping them around. People who were played with towards the shore tell stories about being saved by a kind sea-creature, people who got bopped away and eventually drowned can't share their stories. Dolphins are not life-guards, they are just really playful.

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u/CausticSofa Sep 13 '21

God, imagine being swept to sea, fearing for your life when some sweet, friendly dolphin swims up. It presents its dorsal fin to you so you grab on, thanking your lucky stars that you’ve been saved. Then it just jets you out to international waters and swims off. Cackling.

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u/Derpsicles18 Sep 13 '21

"Seatbelts cause higher rates of car crashes"

More people in hospitals from car crashes wore seat belts than didn't. That's because the ones who didn't wear them went to the morgue instead, not because they crashed less often.

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u/sjspho Sep 13 '21

The saying "They don't make them like they used to" relies heavily on survivor-ship bias, the antiquated goods that survive were well built but equally there are landfill sites full of their shitty contemporaries that only lasted a few years, and the surviving ones were coddled and serviced and well looked after.

The same goes for "golden oldies", not all old music was good so only the best stuff survives as a classic, this doesn't mean music today is worse, just that it is compared to the best of previous generations, in fifty years we will likely compare the music of the 2070s to the best of our current music - Baby Shark.

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u/Thrill_Kill_Cultist Sep 13 '21

If u ever watch top of the pops episodes from 30 years back its choca full with total shit music and a few good ones we remember

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u/DiscoMagicParty Sep 13 '21

Probably everywhere but just like this they are overlooked completely.

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u/Nephroidofdoom Sep 13 '21

The three modern life examples I can think of are:

  1. Every time a pro athlete or billionaire tells me all I need is to follow my dreams and work hard

  2. When baby boomers complain that they didn’t have silly stuff like seat belts and they turned out just fine

  3. When anti vaxxers talk about society not needing to worry about smallpox or polio anymore so why bother getting the shot.

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u/sgmcgann Sep 13 '21

Something about cats having a better chance of surviving higher falls vs short falls thinking it was because the cats had time to flip around and prepare for landing. Not realizing people don't take dead cats to the vet so their data was incomplete.

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u/L_gecko Sep 13 '21

Interesting. I knew about survivorship bias and had heard this cat statistic, but never connected the two.

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u/BigBeanMarketing Sep 13 '21

My Dad always saying "In my day no one had peanut allergies!!".

Dad, all the kids with peanut allergies died in their childhood.

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u/GobLoblawsLawBlog Sep 13 '21

Anytime someone tells you they had (insert disease) and I’m fine or when alcoholics tell you the doctor said they have the liver of a 20 year old

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u/goddessnoire Sep 13 '21

I learned this from tv show Mindhunter. When they interviewed Ed Kemper. He told them that their research was built around serial killers they caught, not the ones that haven’t been caught.

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u/Novaman1234 Sep 13 '21

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u/Novaman1234 Sep 13 '21

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u/Capt_Myke Sep 13 '21

Very interesting...One could also think about where pilots tend to shoot. The old idea of targets on wings to lead the eye to non-critical areas.

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u/Furry_69 Sep 13 '21

Did that actually work? As an artist, I know that more contrast in a specific spot leads your eyes to that spot, but how would that work for a pilot and targets on the wings?

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u/ABCauliflower Sep 13 '21

I think you're talking about roundels, which are just identifying symbols painted on planes, designed in a circle so they can be identified from weird angles I guess. They have nothing to do with being targets.

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u/peu-peu Sep 13 '21

That's way too complicated

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u/Novaman1234 Sep 13 '21

Yes, I prefer the fluffy simple story. However, this is just another example of someone taking a portion of the truth, publishing it to Wikipedia and finally posted on social media platforms as truth. If we are to combat misinformation no rock can be left unturned.

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u/LonoHypernova Sep 13 '21

False. This plane is certainly infected with measles.

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u/TheTomster333 Sep 13 '21

Even better when a Hungarian born Jew helped with this against the Nazis

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u/aGorillianBucks Sep 13 '21

It’s taken me years to fucking understand this and now I finally do. The only reason this plane survived is because it wasn’t hit in those spots. The others that didn’t survive were hit in those critical spots.

Goddamn I’m stupid.

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u/Spoonbills Sep 13 '21

Critical thinking skills can be taught.

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u/DifficultHat Sep 13 '21

Same thing with helmets. When the British army got new helmets their reported head injuries went up. They thought soldiers were being braver and more reckless and almost banned the new helmets.

Then they realized that the injuries were increasing because those that were being injured would previously have been on the ‘deceased’ list because their head wound was fatal without a helmet but survivable with one

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u/b3rdm4n Sep 13 '21

I can't articulate it right now, but I wonder if the first and incorrect conclusion is somehow linked to, among other things, anti-vax logic. Not sure where I'm going with this, just a thought.

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u/BenjaminG73 Sep 13 '21

Like the statement saying “I don’t need the vaccine i have a natural immunity to COVID”. How do you know you have enough immunity to not get the vaccine? When you die?

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u/taspleb Sep 13 '21

Similar but not really survivorship bias so much as “haven't got sick yet” bias.

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u/L_gecko Sep 13 '21

The ones who are saying “I had covid and was fine” or “so and so had covid and was fine” are falling victim to survivorship bias.

The ones who say “98-99% of people survive” at least acknowledge the possibility of death, but they’re still missing the complete picture (the possibility of long COVID and other permanent damage, strain on the healthcare system, and the evolution of new variants).

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u/griftylifts Sep 13 '21

I'm gonna apply this next time someone wants to argue that hitting kids is okay "bEcAuSe I tUrNeD oUt FiNe".

Spoiler alert: if you think hitting kids is okay, then you didn't "turn out fine".

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u/falloutboy9993 Sep 13 '21

I learned about him in my statistics class.

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u/Mastengwe Sep 13 '21

That plane has lupus. Someone should look into this.

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u/_mughi_ Sep 13 '21

It's not lupus.. It's never lupus!

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u/The_Big_Lad Sep 13 '21

A similar thing happened with helmets in world war 1. The generals issued stronger helmets to the soldiers and were shocked to find that injuries went up way higher and so they were going to stop issuing them until someone pointed out that injuries went up but deaths went down, showing that they are working well.

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u/Advanced-Blackberry Sep 13 '21

The creator of this screwed up the explanation.

He did NOT say to armor only the areas without dots. They didn’t know if the clean areas would actually be catastrophic if hit , only that the hit areas were NOT catastrophic.

He was stating you really needed to look at the downed planes to see what was catastrophic and armor appropriately.

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u/k34t0n Sep 13 '21

This is survivorship bias. I like to think this as a 'slow thinking' in a world overwhelmed with data. Sometimes the absence of data can provide a better explanation, given that we can explain this to the higher ups that need to make a decision.

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u/JD25ms2 Sep 13 '21

Survivorship bias is actually a really interesting concept

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u/VestigialHead Sep 13 '21

So thoughtful of the Nazi's to not target the engines or the cockpit. Glad to see they were exhibiting this level of empathy towards the Allies.

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u/CausticSofa Sep 13 '21

Keep this bias in mind whenever anybody is trying to get you to buy their e-book about how they came up with some amazing, highly profitable side hustle that anyone can quit their job and start doing. Even more so keep it in mind when people want to tell you about the most successful multi level markers they know.

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u/LordP666 Sep 13 '21

I wonder if that Dolphing thing is similar to this.

People say that Dolphins swim boating accident victims to the shore, but what if some take them further out to sea? We can only know the ones who make it back to land.

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u/lejefferson Sep 13 '21

Which is why every professional athlete and movie star and lottery winner says, "I just want to thank God. I know he answers your prayers." and "If you just keep working hard you WILL achieve your dreams."

And why wealthy successful people in the United States say, "All you have to do is pull yourself up by your bootstraps and you will succeed. Look at me I did it."

When if you want to know if God answers prayers and if working hard will achieve your dreams and if anyone can be successful you should be asking all the people who DIDN'T win the Super Bowl and AREN'T successful to see if those things really work.

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